Those of us 'old enough' remember the 70's and it kind of rhymes with the 20's:
- Inflation/Shrink-flation. Coffee came in 1 pound cans. Whip Inflation Now! (WIN)
- Property values rising such that it takes 30 years to save for a down payment on a "starter" home.
- Humiliating Foreign War (Vietnam)
- Impaired President (Nixon-Watergate, Carter-Oil Embargo + Iran Hostages)
One that may be relevant:
- Currency changed from precious metals to fiat.
The stock market did not do well during this period, but made it up once the money supply was under control.
Note it took 10 years to tame inflation, 30 years of getting it mostly right, and then the last decade or so, money printer go brrrrr just like in countries that ended up with hyperinflation.
100% agreed. Although not an American here, as a German I remember the tectonical shift in the US political and social landscape that followed. Political: Reagan/Conservatives took over and defense/military became more important again through massive spending due to cold war. Social: Hippies/Progressives/Leftists lost influence dramatically as economy recovered massively. I´d assume that we´re on a brink of the beginning of a new american era: Biden will be followed by a repulican and much more conservative president who will accept the chinese challenge on every field. The US will finally win because of its huge geographical and demographical advantages. Bitcoin will be the nail in the coffin for China if the US plays its hand wisely. As Buffett says: Never bet aganinst America.
I'm not an expert, and while Volker gets credit, a lot of things happened:
- The Fed was still figuring out what levers they had and how to use them
- There were serious underlying price shocks. For example, gas went from $0.25/gal to $1 in no time.
- Industrial realignment, as Autos took a hit from Japanese imports while we were also winding down military and NASA spending. Fun fact, Detroit used to be one of the richest cities in the US.
- We even had a labor shortage during recovery, which allowed the lower income people a decent wage. This is why we stopped enforcing immigration laws, as suppressing these wages kept inflation down.
Volker probably headed off a catastrophe, but the pain inflicted was real. Not until this Covid shutdown have I seen so many industries idled. No one would buy houses with a 24% mortgage, or borrow for expansion, etc. Fortunately that was short lived.
It seems obvious US politics are largely performative and it doesn’t matter that much which party has power, they’re all advancing the same agenda. One faster than the other. Global corps are in full control. Borders/currency/nations don’t really matter anymore. The rise of crypto is not a coincidence, of course.
TBH, I did think that there was a lot of good change under Trump compared to any other president regardless of party. He actually got stuff done and the economy was in a really good place before the plandemic.
I've been using ETH as a unit of account for a while, it's hilarious that my 2019 altcoin investments/presale scams are "up 5x" in US token terms but down 3x compared to ETH in the same time period, so in reality I made horrible investment decisions.
I made my first real money from purely online sources the past 48 Hours and it's because of you guys I mean that without this I would never have thought this is possible, Bless Up and see you on the Island
Look at Australia, I think the goal is to have some kind of a credit score system based on your vax status and get you on a yearly subscription of booster shots.
It seems to me The Fed is controlling the market. They are buying U.S. Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities at an absurd rate. In Japan, their central bank is even buying ETF's.
Do you think that will occur here in the U.S? What do you think is the endgame for people who invest strictly in index funds?
I own too much commercial RE relative to my crypto and online biz stack. Market is now buying RE comps at a 5 cap (my RE market has tracked S&P). Why wouldn’t I sell?
Multifamily RE investor. Selling most of my properties. Just sold one, have another one under contract, should (hopefully) close in couple of weeks. At 5 cap, great time to sell. DCA that $ into crypto.
How is the inflation in the US reflected in the UK? Is it happening on the same scale, or will it have the same impact on the UK when US reaches hyper inflation?
Are you on a written monthly budget? You should know where every penny you make is going. If not, then you likely have hundreds if not a thousand+ US token going out the door wastefully. Cut all non-essential expenses like streaming services, restaurants, bar tabs, etc… . Shop all your insurance as well for lower premiums. Once you’ve taken everything down to the studs, you’ll be surprised how much extra you have to dump into btc/eth.
Thanks for that. At this point I’m down just about to the bare minimum. But I’d came across a old post on the BTB substack where coinbase actually pays you to “learn crypto”. As usual I just needed to put in a little effort to find some answers but thanks again tho Griz!
Been living in NYC for the past few years and got lucky with COVID priced rents, paying $1100 monthly for an apartment which I would now I have to pay $1800 for come renewal time. For a while, there was a lot to love about the city and it brought me a lot of career success due to the countless opportunities here. I also made some of my closest friends, including one who got me into investing in crypto early enough!
I knew it's going to get even worse in this city with the proof of vaccination, have zero respect for people that go along with it and cheer for it due to some emotional social justice stance. My fear was also that more restrictions are likely going to come, we have politicians pushing for proof of vaccination to even travel across states, it's a bill being worked on in the house.
It's all really for show and so politicians can appease the radical wings of their party but I won't get too much into that.
Decided enough was enough, secured a remote gig, and am moving to Florida soon. Gotta say though, Miami is not cheap with rents either as it seems like a lot of people are taking the hint and moving there in droves.
My hopes are that maybe one day NYC does come back more sane, it pains me to leave the city given the great life it has granted me but as much as I love it, I know it's time to go for the time being.
Yeah, pretty soon people from CA and NY will flood into those states, wonder why they are not the same liberal havens they ran like hell from, and vote in ways to turn them blue. I think the two most critical elections in American history coming up are the California recall and Florida governor race. If Elder and DeSantis pull through, we may have bought America 5 more years.
Lol great answer. JS is the most in demand language and Solidity devs are being hunted for like mad. There are some great devs on the bowtied discord discussing this: https://discord.gg/K6WfHphzBj
The issue with real estate is not so much the rate of return or investment quality in strong markets, which are both currently very good. The issue is that real estate ties you to a particular place and makes your assets illiquid.
Also, imagine a scenario where national rent control is established, land lords are taxed at a exorbitant rate, and tenants have Portland-style legal rights to skip rent for two years without penalty. This scenario is already playing out in many places along the west coast, and 2-3 million landlords are behind on mortgages.
The smart play is to take your $300k duplex down payment and use that to scale up online businesses that do not tie you to a specific place, and easily identify you as a rich person (property owner).
Those of us 'old enough' remember the 70's and it kind of rhymes with the 20's:
- Inflation/Shrink-flation. Coffee came in 1 pound cans. Whip Inflation Now! (WIN)
- Property values rising such that it takes 30 years to save for a down payment on a "starter" home.
- Humiliating Foreign War (Vietnam)
- Impaired President (Nixon-Watergate, Carter-Oil Embargo + Iran Hostages)
One that may be relevant:
- Currency changed from precious metals to fiat.
The stock market did not do well during this period, but made it up once the money supply was under control.
Note it took 10 years to tame inflation, 30 years of getting it mostly right, and then the last decade or so, money printer go brrrrr just like in countries that ended up with hyperinflation.
Good to know!
Translation - “thank you for the summary, but old enough to remember does not mean THAT old!”
100% agreed. Although not an American here, as a German I remember the tectonical shift in the US political and social landscape that followed. Political: Reagan/Conservatives took over and defense/military became more important again through massive spending due to cold war. Social: Hippies/Progressives/Leftists lost influence dramatically as economy recovered massively. I´d assume that we´re on a brink of the beginning of a new american era: Biden will be followed by a repulican and much more conservative president who will accept the chinese challenge on every field. The US will finally win because of its huge geographical and demographical advantages. Bitcoin will be the nail in the coffin for China if the US plays its hand wisely. As Buffett says: Never bet aganinst America.
I thought it took mostly one Paul Volker to get inflation in order - or were there other factors?
I'm not an expert, and while Volker gets credit, a lot of things happened:
- The Fed was still figuring out what levers they had and how to use them
- There were serious underlying price shocks. For example, gas went from $0.25/gal to $1 in no time.
- Industrial realignment, as Autos took a hit from Japanese imports while we were also winding down military and NASA spending. Fun fact, Detroit used to be one of the richest cities in the US.
- We even had a labor shortage during recovery, which allowed the lower income people a decent wage. This is why we stopped enforcing immigration laws, as suppressing these wages kept inflation down.
Volker probably headed off a catastrophe, but the pain inflicted was real. Not until this Covid shutdown have I seen so many industries idled. No one would buy houses with a 24% mortgage, or borrow for expansion, etc. Fortunately that was short lived.
Thank you
It seems obvious US politics are largely performative and it doesn’t matter that much which party has power, they’re all advancing the same agenda. One faster than the other. Global corps are in full control. Borders/currency/nations don’t really matter anymore. The rise of crypto is not a coincidence, of course.
Sure seems like it.
TBH, I did think that there was a lot of good change under Trump compared to any other president regardless of party. He actually got stuff done and the economy was in a really good place before the plandemic.
I've long said politics is WWE for psuedo intellectuals.
My only reason for staying current is to make sure I don't get the short end of the stick for being unvaccinated.
I've been using ETH as a unit of account for a while, it's hilarious that my 2019 altcoin investments/presale scams are "up 5x" in US token terms but down 3x compared to ETH in the same time period, so in reality I made horrible investment decisions.
Yeah live and learn
Actually on that note imagine selling into "Stables". The only token that has infinite supply
I just wanna say thankyou.
I made my first real money from purely online sources the past 48 Hours and it's because of you guys I mean that without this I would never have thought this is possible, Bless Up and see you on the Island
Congrats!
Would love to hear your opinion on vaccines and further restrictions. What’s the end play of the government, and how to play it?
Honestly don't know, we gave up guessing when the card wasn't even credit card sized.
Look at Australia, I think the goal is to have some kind of a credit score system based on your vax status and get you on a yearly subscription of booster shots.
Afghanistan debacle suggests the world can't trust the "fiat" behind US fiat. All the more important to think in BTC/ETH terms going forward.
It seems to me The Fed is controlling the market. They are buying U.S. Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities at an absurd rate. In Japan, their central bank is even buying ETF's.
Do you think that will occur here in the U.S? What do you think is the endgame for people who invest strictly in index funds?
Not a trick question, honestly asking:
I own too much commercial RE relative to my crypto and online biz stack. Market is now buying RE comps at a 5 cap (my RE market has tracked S&P). Why wouldn’t I sell?
Multifamily RE investor. Selling most of my properties. Just sold one, have another one under contract, should (hopefully) close in couple of weeks. At 5 cap, great time to sell. DCA that $ into crypto.
See you on the island 🏝
Not sure if I’m too late but I have the following questions concerning selling too early:
1) In another article you said once your 2x up on alts, you should take profits. That still applies?
2) How about taking profits so that you can scoop up more BTC and ETH in the next bear market?
*scoop up even more BTC and ETH during the bear market on top of your usual buys from us trash token flow
How is the inflation in the US reflected in the UK? Is it happening on the same scale, or will it have the same impact on the UK when US reaches hyper inflation?
Can you please have an intervention with Mark Cuban on his NFT portfolio? Shit's looking ruff:
https://debank.com/profile/0x293ed38530005620e4b28600f196a97e1125daac/nft?chain=
Off subject just delete if need be….does anyone know of any legitimate ways to earn btc/eth when US token flows are low?
Are you on a written monthly budget? You should know where every penny you make is going. If not, then you likely have hundreds if not a thousand+ US token going out the door wastefully. Cut all non-essential expenses like streaming services, restaurants, bar tabs, etc… . Shop all your insurance as well for lower premiums. Once you’ve taken everything down to the studs, you’ll be surprised how much extra you have to dump into btc/eth.
Thanks for that. At this point I’m down just about to the bare minimum. But I’d came across a old post on the BTB substack where coinbase actually pays you to “learn crypto”. As usual I just needed to put in a little effort to find some answers but thanks again tho Griz!
Been living in NYC for the past few years and got lucky with COVID priced rents, paying $1100 monthly for an apartment which I would now I have to pay $1800 for come renewal time. For a while, there was a lot to love about the city and it brought me a lot of career success due to the countless opportunities here. I also made some of my closest friends, including one who got me into investing in crypto early enough!
I knew it's going to get even worse in this city with the proof of vaccination, have zero respect for people that go along with it and cheer for it due to some emotional social justice stance. My fear was also that more restrictions are likely going to come, we have politicians pushing for proof of vaccination to even travel across states, it's a bill being worked on in the house.
It's all really for show and so politicians can appease the radical wings of their party but I won't get too much into that.
Decided enough was enough, secured a remote gig, and am moving to Florida soon. Gotta say though, Miami is not cheap with rents either as it seems like a lot of people are taking the hint and moving there in droves.
My hopes are that maybe one day NYC does come back more sane, it pains me to leave the city given the great life it has granted me but as much as I love it, I know it's time to go for the time being.
Same thing happening in LA. Walls are closing in on free people. Branch Covidians want to turn CA into Australia. I’m looking at FL/AZ/TX.
I worry it is only a temporary solution. The federal regime won’t tolerate rogue states for long.
Yeah, pretty soon people from CA and NY will flood into those states, wonder why they are not the same liberal havens they ran like hell from, and vote in ways to turn them blue. I think the two most critical elections in American history coming up are the California recall and Florida governor race. If Elder and DeSantis pull through, we may have bought America 5 more years.
Two ignorant mofos
What are the top 2 most useful languages you would learn (besides English of course) and why?
Solidity and Javascript
Lol great answer. JS is the most in demand language and Solidity devs are being hunted for like mad. There are some great devs on the bowtied discord discussing this: https://discord.gg/K6WfHphzBj
"After all the chaos we think you’ve got ~3 years to figure out some sort of internet business. "
What's the big change in 3 year that will affect internet businesses?
We expect significant tax changes
For your readers with low seven figures net worths in crypto, does this mean they have already "made it"?
Could you please cover real estate in greater detail: "Don’t even get us started on RE prices in major cities that will unlikely ever be the same."
Check our older posts on RE you'll see the answer there
Yeah you should be set honestly as long as you have cash flow to never sell
The issue with real estate is not so much the rate of return or investment quality in strong markets, which are both currently very good. The issue is that real estate ties you to a particular place and makes your assets illiquid.
Also, imagine a scenario where national rent control is established, land lords are taxed at a exorbitant rate, and tenants have Portland-style legal rights to skip rent for two years without penalty. This scenario is already playing out in many places along the west coast, and 2-3 million landlords are behind on mortgages.
The smart play is to take your $300k duplex down payment and use that to scale up online businesses that do not tie you to a specific place, and easily identify you as a rich person (property owner).
This read our post on RE. If you want to do RE and are antsy, just get a simple place ONLY if you are willing to live in the place for years.