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Big Picture on UBL, Taxes and Spotting Truths
Level 1 - Definitely NGMI
Welcome Avatar! Today, we’re going to cover a few touchy topics. Oddly enough we had some newbies call us “communists” on Twitter when we suggested various forms of tax increases. If you’ve followed us for years, you know that we don’t think $1M US tokens is anywhere near rich (LINK). An. We want the highly competitive positive thinking Turbo Autists to get to $10M+ US Token (Career, second e-com income, sell/scale - LINK).
Therefore we have to pause and talk a bit about UBL (No typo) and why it is nearly inevitable. You do not want to see a world where 20-40% of the world is sitting around doing nothing with an inability to eat/pay rent and binge on Netflix.
You want a world where *BASIC* needs are met especially as AI/crypto/VR/AR are coming at a rapid rate. Faster than you could possibly imagine sitting here today.
Part 1: Universal Basic Living (Not Income)
So we’re clear, this phrase should really be called “Universal Basic Living”. That is what we believe in. We do not believe in simply handing out tons and tons of money. We learned the problems with that already.
We don’t see a good argument against the future being Robotics, AI, VR and crypto. Instead, we have to *prepare* intelligently for that future. If you want to make satoshis off of these trends, our paid Substack tells you what we’re doing.
So. Look at the big picture: 1) AI is going to displace tons of jobs - no reason to type numbers into excel if software can scrape it and put it in there with zero errors. No need to have an Uber/Taxi driver if the car is self driving. No reason to pay a middle man a fee for executing a contract if it is just a line of software code. 2) AI is already making the elite more profitable. Many of the media accounts you interact with today are already bots/not human. You just can’t tell the difference - yes, seriously. Which is an uncomfortable fact in and of itself. 3) As money is printed the price of goods will go up as supply of money is higher (M2 - latest figure at $20T)
Now the “silver lining”. Jobs will be created in the VR/AR world. That’s where the economy will eventually shift. The problem is the massive pain/transition period to get there. You really don’t want to see a world where the average person who works at a restaurant or bar is seeing wage compression - since it is one of the rare jobs left (hint this is why we recommend tipping at least 30-40% for all waiters/bartenders).
Enter UBL: Again. We don’t believe in simply handing out money to people. We already learned what happens. People drink, do drugs and gain weight. We already saw that social experiment occur in 2020.
Universal Basic Living would be: Food, Water, Electricity and some sort of way to create a rental stipend (that cannot be fraudulent).
Start with Food. If we can agree that robots and AI will slowly but surely reduce the cost of food to near-zero, it means that we should be able to solve world hunger (we’re extreme optimists at heart as you can see). Why should people pay for food if we have created enough technology to render the cost at near zero? The person who makes this possible becomes a billionaire (of course), however, driving food cost to near zero should be a technology we use to make sure people don’t starve to death.
Move to Water/Electricity: If the food problem is solved, we can take the cost of electricity/water to near zero by that time as well. Again. None of this will be exactly zero but we could think of it as a “part” of the taxes we already pay. We’d much rather pay taxes that go to Universal Basic Living expenses vs. crazy stuff like Ethnic Studies general education at public universities.
BTB “First Transition Step”: From the above you can conclude that all our focus would be on taking tax revenue and moving it towards some sort of UBL for the poor/lower class. As AI/VR take more and more jobs, this is inevitably going to happen. Most are not reading up on tech, building out e-commerce businesses and funding the creator economy.
The average person is watching a lot of Netflix, working at a face-to-face position (human to human interaction). As those get automated away, you’re left with Sales people, coders, creators/entertainers and business/capital owners.
Naturally, we are walking the walk here. We’re funding anons we’ve never met, giving them small jobs when we can and building out e-comm businesses. This is the future (for someone smart enough to be reading this!). And. We’re not foolish enough to believe that the average person will read this website. In fact, we doubt the average person even knows how fast AI is evolving online (particularly with ads).
Part 2: How Do We Pay For This Stuff (Taxes!)
The above sounds good. Therefore? We know it won’t happen smoothly. The only way to prevent a massive revolution in a world with inflation + potential job loss is with a pool of money (taxes).
Take a step back first. We know this is coming. If money is printed like crazy (already happened), then the price of goods should go up. If the price of goods rise (continue at 5%+), it means people will spend more. If people spend more, the prices of goods will go up. This is a vicious cycle as salaries are raised and people then take that money and spend it too (due to inflation). This leads to… Technology stepping in and displacing the jobs that were causing prices to go up.
Reverse this. We pretend that money is no longer printed and the prices of all goods and services go flat or decline. Companies earn less revenue and less profits. They look for ways to improve the profit line and … Technology steps in to displace jobs that were not value additive.
Conclusion is the same, technology eats into job growth. The area where you should focus is online since we eventually move to VR/AR. However. Technology is going to cause jobs to go away in an inflationary or deflationary environment.
Paying for The Transition: In an ideal world, we have a smoother transition to the internet based economy. Internet based economy is built with creators, e-commerce and unique niche communities (hint on what we’re attempting to build with the Jungle!)
Onto the Ugly Answers: So we’re clear, we don’t know the best solution. We’re too focused on trying to earn vs. solve all of the worlds problems. And. Here we go. 1) an estate/inheritance tax change and 2) a tax change based on the goods you purchase. Before we' go through these we’re no where near communist/socialist. We’re attempting to *bridge* the gap between the inevitable massive wealth inequality and avoid a massive civil war/revolution.
1) Inheritance/Estate: If you worked on Wall Street, you know a large chunk of the people in the industry are talentless and simply got into the industry because their parents were upper-middle class. Isn’t hard to break into Wall Street if you got private tutoring and private education for 20+ years and your parents gave you the step by step. Many even got their kids the interviews since they knew the banker!
Therefore, we’re against a *certain* level of nepotism. We get it. If you are rich and successful your kids deserve to get a house and some money. The question is “how much is enough”. We’ve reached a point where money printing is out of control. If you inherit say $10M US tokens, all you have to do it put it into index funds and blow through $200K+ per year. You won’t even touch the principal. You’re creating zero economic value and yet you are getting *richer* than people who are actually creating value! This system doesn’t make much sense to us.
Also. Instead of the inheritance/estate tax going to “the government” broadly. It should be traceable. You should be able to trace where the funds went and what it paid for. If you want to give your kids $20M, you have to donate a similar amount to improve the education of the average person. Creating a more equal playing field. Again. We’re just brain storming here but you get the idea. March towards: Equal Opportunity, Unequal Results.
2) Change Tax on Consumption: We get it. Another slippery slope. That said, we can hopefully agree that the tax on a Honda Civic should not be the same as a Ferrari. The guy buying the Ferrari is not going to care if the tax rate is 2% higher. The guy buying the Honda Civic needs that money to pay for his annual utility bills.
Also. Why is the tax rate on marijuana, alcohol etc the same? You could even reverse this. Offer a *lower* tax rate for healthy foods. Force people to consider making a smarter decision. If you price them out equally, we already learned what happens (people binge on alcohol and drugs).
Last example is Mega Mansions. At a certain point the tax rate should be progressive. A guy living in a 450 sq/ft studio in manhattan should not be paying the same property tax rate as the guy with a $20M+ mega apartment on Park Avenue. We already have a progressive tax on income, we shouldn’t have a flat tax on ridiculous home flexing.
3) Tax Companies: We can change the tax rate on corporations. The massive issue here? This is going to be harder and harder to implement. As more and more industries go online and become more mobile, they will just leave to the best tax jurisdiction. Please do not tell us that they won’t move. You already saw massive migration from California and NYC to Florida/Texas.
With corporations, they will be even more aggressive. Good luck getting an internet e-commerce guy to stay in a high tax area when he can simply pack his bags and move his Shopify account to a new S-corp in a different state, city or country.
Conclusion: Before we get the low quality comments suggesting we’re pro-communism, please read the suggestions and think them through seriously. If you’re paying $300K for a Ferrari instead of $350K or you’re paying $50K in property tax instead of $35K, these are are still *attainable* status goods. You’re free to spend your money on anything you like.
A few notes: 1) capital gains are likely bad since rich people don’t need to sell, they hold and never sell living off dividends and their income streams, 2) a wealth tax would likely be voted down quickly as that is effectively direct theft and 3) regular income tax rates are already bad enough as rich people don’t make money from a W-2 anyway.
We’re looking for *reasonable"* ways to fix the tax system. IE. it has to be something that people will vote for.
Part 3: How To Develop Truth Detection!
In a change of pace, we got into some fun (and ridiculous) Twitter interactions this week. Figured it would be a good time to go over some simple reasoning and logic skills. We’ll start with drug use and the olympics.
The Olympics: Everyone is on something. There. We said it. Feel free to be offended. The chances are high that everyone is on “something” they shouldn’t be taking by the “rule book”.
We’re *not* saying these individuals are bad. In fact, we’re confident that they are the best in the World with or without substances. The problem is incentives.
If you look up the rules for all of the drug testing at the Olympics, you find that there are hundreds of ways to make sure you “clear” the rules. We’ve had so many doping blow ups years later.
Therefore, your options are simple: max out all the numbers you can or risk getting second place which is likely a payout difference of *millions* of US Tokens. We know what people will choose based on incentives.
Autist Note: This same logic applies to celebrities. If your entire job is on camera/film looking good you probably want to drug up to continue looking good. Especially since there is no performance testing for that. And. This also applies to someone working in a grind out profession like Wall Street, Tech etc. Likely using some sort of performance enhancing compounds.
Move to Wealth: Another good IQ test? Lambo, watch and bank account statement tweets. If you can’t figure out that these people are scammers you’re simply NGMI.
You don’t need strong logic or reasoning to figure this one out. We can even assume that the bank statement is real (likely a snapshot in time where revenues are not profits) and we can even assume the Lambo is owned. They still ain’t rich.
What why? No rich person wants the general public to know he’s rich.
If you want proof of this go and check out all the major rich lists for crypto. Bitcoin and Ethereum. Draw a line at a decent amount of money: 10 BTC or 100ETH. Use blockchain explorer and grab all of them. Notice. No one signs their ownership of the asset! Why? They don’t want to be tracked.
You can tell that someone is not rich when they are attempting to prove to you that they are rich. Instead they are trying to use that to sell you something. If anyone is using status goods to sell a product, you know the product doesn’t work.
The exception to the rule is always the same: athletes, celebrities and public figures. They are paid to wear/drive the products anyway. Read the book “Millionaire Next Door” and you’ll see how rich people usually hide in plain sight.
Studies and Science: In college, professors were glorified. Later you learn that the *majority* were not able to succeed in the business world. This is starting to cause a massive riff in the educational world as business people are creating educational content worth 10, 100, 1,000 times more than any college education (you’re literally reading one right now!)
Why? The only way to get ahead in the business world is to be innovative. Colleges/professors simply prove facts that were already intuitively known.
For example, people ask for sources on “muscular men being more attractive” and anyone with social skills would know this is true. However. Bad studies have women clicking the “unattractive” button if they see a muscular guy because they feel insecure. In the real world, the muscular guy is attractive. Why the discrepancy?
Actions are the truth not surveys and polls. Eventually, they control for all variables and prove it to be true… decades too late. (simple one, people say iPhones cost too much in polls yet they buy them every year)
Another good example is their position as a professor in the first place. Would Bill Gates or Steve Jobs quit Microsoft/Apple to go and teach Calculus 101? Probably not. They have better things to do.
If someone is truly brilliant they are creating something new to help improve society. They would be doing the world a disservice by dropping everything to teach math.
Common Thread “Does This Make Sense”? One of the best ways to develop your own macro view of the world is to ask this question consistently. Incentives drive the majority of actions. So. If you ask this question a few times you will usually get to the *correct* answer.
Take a big step back and look at the most likely outcome. Don’t let your initial reaction (usually ego) make the decision. Pause and say “in what situation would I make this same type of move”. This will usually get you to the real answer.
Sometimes good news, sometimes bad news.
Put the ego aside. Focus on incentives. Apply logic on actions. Not words.
Part 4: Quick Test! Don’t Cheat by Scrolling.
For fun we can have a quick exam/quiz here. Check out this news article (LINK).
Now we’re not sure who is reading this. You could be a teenager and have no idea who John McAfee is. Feel free to do some research before reading on. There is no judgement in terms of “starting point” of knowledge.
Quick Summary: After you do your quick research you will find the following: 1) John McAfee was a maverick who sold a tech security company for many millions of dollars, 2) he was certainly strange and was accused of murder and other such activities, 3) he had obscure videos doing drugs, hanging out with escorts and other extreme items and 4) he had several run-ins with the law.
Okay on a glance this guy doesn’t appear to be normal. We are not going to pass any judgement on if he’s a “good” or “bad” person. That is none of our business. Focus on the facts.
John McAfee Dies: Again. We’re not going to claim he committed suicide and we’re not going to claim he was killed. That’s not the crux of the question. The question is the initial assumption in the headline “died broke after blowing $100 million”.
Pause. You have a cyber security expert who was worth hundreds of millions and he died broke.
Some More Research: You look more into his background and you see he was a proponent of crypto currencies. Doesn’t matter which one. We’re not here to argue that either. He liked some more than others.
Finally the Question, Do you believe he died broke?
If you answered “Yes”, unfortunately you are not gonna make it (NGMI). You have to learn to think critically and figure out that this entire article makes little sense. In the article, it even states that he got $23M US Tokens for promoting random ICOs.
Is it more likely that the bizarre real estate purchases were a front? We’d think so.
Is it more likely that he has many millions locked up in crypto? We’d think so.
Therefore, when you read articles like this be sure to pause and say “Does this make sense”.
If you’re in doubt about this analysis we have a SHOCKING FOREX TRADING COURSE TO SELL FOR $499!!!! Just respond to this email for more details!!!
Q&A: Wednesday will be the portfolio update, so for this Q&A please focus on the tax section. We’d love to hear about some new ideas. Again. We’re no where near communist. Looking for ways to help transition people towards the digital age and sovereign individual *without* mass revolution/starvation.
Disclaimer: None of this is to be deemed legal or financial advice of any kind. But rather opinions from an anonymous group of ex-tech bankers who left to work in affiliate marketing and e-commerce.