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ChatGPT Potential Issues - You Are Betting *AGAINST* Google
Level 2 - Value Investor
Welcome Avatar! As you know we’ve been having a back and forth side convo with BowTiedSystems on the future of ChatGPT (Read here). Currently, we think it’s heavily overhyped and finally found a way to express the main concerns. This was highlighted by BuzzFeed suggesting they will switch out writers for AI generated content. In our opinion, the market reaction doesn’t make much sense and the idea likely fails.
Politics Aside: We’re aware that many have messed with the platform and realized that it leans left in terms of the data set it was solved. It would suggest more “socialistic” beliefs. This isn’t really important for this conversation instead, we want to highlight how the market is pricing in enormous success without realizing what you’re really invested in or “Betting On”
Part 1 - What Are You Betting On?
You are betting on Google failing. If you think that isn’t a great decision on day one, then feel free to read on for why we think this is the case.
Open AI: We agree with a lot of the proof points from BowTiedSystems, if you can use it to improve sales letters and solve other complex problems it certainly has a use case. The problem to us is really this “who owns the best data”. There are really only a few companies that own the most data: 1) China, 2) Google, 3) Apple and 4) perhaps - Microsoft/Amazon
OpenAI Is effectively trying to create a new massive search system. We really doubt that Google is simply going to sit back and give up all of its market share. Google spends ungodly amounts of money making sure it is #1 in search and they do their best to expand the definition of search to newspapers and other old delivery systems to try and claim they are not a monopoly (they are pretty much a monopoly on internet search in our opinion)
“Data is the New Oil”
This was a phrase created by mathematician Clive Humby around 2006.
Fast forward and around 2015 it became a popular Wall Street phrase. People started suggesting that China would own the world because they had the most granular data on all citizens.
Kai-Fu Lee, CEO of Sinovation Ventures and author of the book AI Superpowers, “If data is the new oil, China is the new OPEC.” (Source)
At this point hopefully the concept is clear. If ChatGPT works the long-term consequence is that Google has a massive competitor (arguably better) and not only that but it can easily do the work of many creative talents. We’d argue this is a far fetched conclusion and instead we’re no where near that level of skill.
Part 2: Who has the Best Data
Okay, the current argument is that OpenAI will simply be fed more and more data. This will then allow it to outcompete Google in search and innovation longer term. To us the reverse is more likely at this time.
Enter the craziest announcement we’ve seen to date. BuzzFeed decided to *publicly* announce that it is going to try to replace humans with ChatGPT algos. (Source)
This is a wild and terrible idea to announce publicly. Despite that the stock popped as people immediately assume the AI will replace humans.
Now Why Is it a Bad Idea? Well look no further than an SEO expert in the jungle (yeah he’s got some weird mannerisms but don’t we all).
As you can see as soon as the google algorithm picks up that you’re using AI. You get clobbered and sent to page infinity in search. Good luck coming back from that.
Think Through the Incentives: Now enter a smart person. Hard to argue that Google doesn’t have smart people. Of course they do. You now *KNOW* that buzzfeed is going to use AI or AI with some tweaks. Guess what? You can now clobber them for good.. You take all the data and feed it into your own algorithm. You say nothing.
You accumulate enough information to be able to pin point and target ChatGPT written content (even if modified a bit) and suddenly overnight those pages go to zero. They don’t show up anymore. Think this is crazy? It has happened to hundreds of companies in the past and even happened to META recently when Apple suddenly decided “sorry bruh no more information for you”
Whatever you do, you do not *announce* you’re going to use ChatGPT. Google probably already *has* the best data on an individual basis since they own internet search and now you’re going to give them even more information to compete directly against you? This doesn’t seem bright at all. If you had a way to use this AI to slowly take out the King, you better not miss. You don’t announce anything you simply do it until it is too late.
By announcing like this you’ve essentially guaranteed you’ll be de-ranked and zero’d ASAP. They will feed their own algorithms and build their own AI system based on all of Google’s data. There is just no way they go down without a massive counter punch.
Other Notes Upside and Downside
As usual happy to hear comments from people like BowTiedSystems who can argue against this.
For an “upside” situation, if Microsoft really feeds them tons of info and it passes google in terms of granular data then Bing should become a massively better search engine (something to watch out for)
In a “Downside” situation, Google quickly figures out how to track all OpenAI data sets and simply de-platforms them from organic search. Good night sweetheart
AI is much better suited for boring white collar work *at this time*. This would be checking for typos, rewriting basic legal memos, CIMs, Pitchbooks and other redundant tasks (filling in financial statements as well)
Creatives are unlikely to take a major hit any time soon since we can even figure out what is AI content vs. non-AI content relatively quickly. Guess that isn’t saying much since some people have terrible reading comprehension (IE. anyone brain dead enough to think BTB was sold - lol clown car circus level IQ)
On that note, this epiphany may or may not be driven by a microdose of redacted. That said, we still think the ChatGPT stuff is heavily over hyped and will die out by end of year after google Mike Tyson KO punches anyone trying to use it for ranking purposes.
Disclaimer: None of this is to be deemed legal or financial advice of any kind. These are *opinions* written by an anonymous group of Ex-Wall Street Tech Bankers and software engineers who moved into affiliate marketing and e-commerce. We’re an advisor for Synapse Protocol 2022-2024E.
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