Probability Based Decisions - Make A Choice

Level 3 - Virgin DeFi Analyst

Welcome Avatar! We’ve gotten a lot more interest in this blog/website/community ever since we rebranded to BowTiedBull. This was done on purpose of course. The prior brand was purely to incite extreme emotions and the new brand allows for a larger opportunity for anyone who wants to get ahead in life. Get ahead in life means something different to everyone so we need to walk through the different ways you may want to live.

Part 1 - Make a Choice

What do you really want out of life. If you’re here the chances are a lot higher that 1) you want to be wealthy, 2) you want to maximize your potential and 3) you don’t want to end up like the masses. If your goal is to simply live a normal life and accumulate $1M US Token net worth, you’re probably in the wrong place. If you simply save 10-15% of your income and don’t make horrible decisions you can do that with $100,000 US tokens per year and retire at age 55+.

With that out of the way there are really a “few” people we cater to. This is why the group of anons will always be niche. The groups include: 1) people who want to get rich - defined as $5M+ US Trash Token, 2) people who want to maximize their lives and 3) people who want to live without regrets. The funny part about the three levels there is that number two requires number one and number three requires number 1 and number 2. As you become more successful you’ll see why but we can lay it out pretty clearly here.

Group 1 - $5M US Token: Here we outlined the best careers. The best careers continue to be M&A/Private Equity, Enterprise sales and Technology (such as a software developer). That’s really it.

Many people come in here with other “ideas”, however, they simply don’t work. Not trying to throw any hate out there, we’re referring to factual *numbers* The *probability* is best with those three paths.

If you go into management consulting or you go and become a doctor/lawyer… your *probabilities* are lower in terms of getting to $5M. There is an enormous difference when comparing an investment banking associate making $300-350K a year and a management consultant making $200K at the same age. Compounding simply dismantles the $100-150K difference. The $100-150K multiplied by 4 years is $400-600K… grow this at 7% for 21 years… this is a $1.6M-$2.4M spread already! This does not include future promotions (every single year the banker makes even more per year than the management consultant - ie. the spread in income widens!).

Now look at a lawyer/doctor. Sure they could make $350-450K quickly. Again. Same problem with compounding. If you earn nothing for 3-4 years and on top of that have to take on debt… this means you’re 5 years behind. Five years of investment banking income is around $1M US Token. Say $500K after tax… Multiply this again by the same equation above and you get to a $2.0-2.5M spread (7% compounding for 21 years). The banker is half way there if he doesn’t blow it all and the lawyer/doctor has seen no net worth and is starting from zero.

Group 2 - Maximizing Life, a Legacy: This is where it gets tricky. At around $10M US Token, you’ve created a good amount of “generational wealth”. A deca-millionaire puts you in the top 1% of *wealth*. This is a lot more impressive than being a top 1% individual in terms of *income*. Income may only last a year or two, wealth is forever unless you foolishly blow it on status goods, drugs and other problematic activities.

Here we can return back to Group 1. If your goal is to simply get to $5M US Token, you can do this by killing yourself and becoming a “Company Man” in any of those three industries (at least for now). The good news? If you want to get into Group 2 there are actually *more* options! It just takes more guts.

To break into Group 2 which means you want a net worth of $10M+ US Token, you have to start a business. Pause for a second. You *could* acquire $10M+ US Token in the three careers and a few other “exceptions” to the rule. However. The *probabilities* suggest that your best bet is a small business. Again. This is just based on numbers and cold hard facts.

Autist Note: if you want proof of this without listening to us, call Private Wealth Management firms in the USA. Be a LARP and say you’re interested in an account and simply ask “How do most of the clients create their wealth?”. Same old answer… small business owners/Real Estate (real estate is just another small business for anyone who has had to deal with managing properties).

Before moving on, please realize that most people do not have the guts to even try. They would prefer to just talk about it and refuse to take any losses. The people who make it are willing to deal with a few years of pain and suffering.

We’re more than happy to admit it took ~3-4 years to really make any *significant* money online and somewhere around 6-7 years to see a big step up. Like everything in life, improvement is not a straight line or linear. It’s a ton of nothing, lots of annoying pain and suffering followed by a sudden breakthrough. Life has some sort of filtering process built into the software code. It makes you want to quit 5,000,000 times before it hands you your first success.

Group 3 - Living Without Regrets: Ah yes the final part. If you’ve made it to group two you’ve already gone through a ton of pain and suffering. You also went through the complete destruction phase where you party your brains out, blow money on things you should have never bought and partake in *more* than your fair share of degenerate activities.

It happens to the best of us and it will happen to you (Rare “exception” to the rule? Ultra boring goody goody types). We’re more than happy to admit that we went through that phase. Long-time readers know this from the crazy stuff we’ve said/posted about in the past (cleaned it up of course).

That is neither here nor there. At the end of the tunnel you get to ask one last question “Did your life positively impact people… Or... Were you a drain on society?“

This has some serious ramifications. What you realize is that you can actually get rich and no one will ever care that you were alive. If you got rich because you invented electricity, you surely made the world a better place when compared to someone selling motivational seminars like Tony Robbins. It isn’t even close and it isn’t even debatable.

In fact, the greatest book we’ve ever read is “How to Get Rich” by Felix Dennis. We came to the conclusion that he wrote that book because he did not have kids. Most people end up having kids and this fulfills their “need” to send the elevator back down.

The reality is that the world would be a better place if Felix not only had kids but *also* wrote the book. Either way you should really read up on his background (LINK - particularly the upbringing part) in addition to reading his book (arguably the bible of getting rich).

So. Our current recommendation is that you shoot for Group 2. Since you are likely reading us to reach Group 2 you’ll use that as a starting point. Once you achieve your goal of breaking into Group 2 you’ll find out that you didn’t really want the fancy car or the mansion. You were trying to live up to your own ego. *Hopefully* you move onto group three (break the ego trap) and end up giving it all away in the end.

Also. No. We’re not getting soft. If you are rich enough to focus on leaving a positive impact you’re by definition way beyond any sort of meaningless scoreboard net worth number (no one knows how much they are worth once they start a successful business anyway - another thing they never teach you in school).

Part 2 - The Good and Bad

With the intense high level out of the way, it is time to move onto running the numbers. While the above feels good, the reality is harsh, life is hard and many people will *underestimate* how difficult the path will be.

The Good News: Vast majority won’t even try. They will just spin wheels and come up with 100+ ideas. Ideas have no value particularly if there isn’t even a website. Most won’t even bother learning a skill. So. All you have to do is develop *any* skill that you think you can sell on the internet. You are good at it when people you *don’t* know tell you you’re good at it. Honestly… 90% of people won’t even learn a single skill to the point that others tell them they are good. Yes. The majority are that lazy.

The Neutral News: You already know where to begin. Use the internet. If you plan on getting rich with a brick and mortar we’ve got bad news for you. You’re limiting your scale and limiting your margins. Online has and will be the future. The macroeconomic environment is only going to accelerate this trend. Don’t fight technology, let technology fight the battles for you.

Second piece of neutral news. You already know what to do. Sell a recurring *consumable* product, sell software or sell a service. Notice. None of these say become a writer because you’ve already seen that business doesn’t work (hint multiply a social media profile by a dollar discount by 10-15% and you get an idea of how influential that person is on an annualized basis).

Another example would be graphics design - we posted this recently on twitter - if you are good at design don’t bother if you’re going to focus on what “you think” looks good. The customer and the conversions determine what is good. If your customer clicks more on ads featuring blonde women, you use blonde women even if you think XYZ women are better looking. Your opinion is meaningless in the business world. Analytics over ego.

Autist Note: changing the design is not “selling out”. Selling out would require doing something illegal/against moral framework or self conscious. If you know advertisement A is better than advertisement B… yet you run Advertisement B… You deserve to fail. You let your ego make the decision not the customer. Your ego doesn’t pay the bills. If ads of blonde women convert at 3% (profitable) and you run ads with brunettes converting at 1% (unprofitable)… Just give it up. You were not interested in winning in the first place!

The Bad News: You will probably fail more times than you initially expect. If you think it’s going to take you 1 year to figure it out it will probably take you 2-3 years. If you are ultra talented and think it will take you 6 months, you might be ultra talented and it still takes you 1.5 years. The market will tell you if you’re talented or not… based on the direct feedback you get from you checkout store.

The Ugly News: Some people just don’t “have it”. If you are a good rule follower or enjoy following specific step by step processes 100% of the time… the business world isn’t for you. For example, the person who gets an A+ on everything instead of an A- to get the same 4.0 GPA is going to do *worse* than the guy getting the A-.

The guy who gets ranked #1 in his company all the time is probably the best rule follower and therefore is unlikely going to be a good risk taker. If you don’t enjoy taking risks, you’re just not going to be a good fit for Group 2. You’re better off shooting for Group 1 (and hoping you climb the ladder fast enough to get into Group 2)

You will also learn a lot of ugly truths about the world even if you *do* make it. The *majority* of your friends/family will not be happy to see you win at life (exception to the rule is people who grew up rich already - most of them don’t have negative associations with money).

Even if you have the talent and skills, there is always a chance you give up right before you succeed. In fact, if your goal was to get to $X million US Token, we can all but guarantee you’ll have a massive set back just inches away from achieving your net worth goal (another life software code thing). There are no guarantees in this world.

Part 3 - Run the Probabilities

Now that you understand what you’re facing it is time to run some probabilities. Remember. If someone needs to “motivate” you to try and reach any of the three groups mentioned you’re probably not going to make it anyway. Make a decisive and strong decision. You want to make it to group 1, group 2 or group 3 and stick to it.

Probability Calculations: Since there are *no* guarantees in this world, the best you can do is make the best probability based decision. If you are a good salesman and decide to sell cell phones instead of B2B enterprise products we have some bad news for you, you’re likely wasting your time. If your plan is to get rich by becoming a writer or by becoming a musician, we have some more bad news… You’re likely wasting your time. If your goal is to go into technology and eventually start a small niche software business… you’re making one of the *best* probability based decisions to get into group 1 or group 2.

Below are the calculations. Starting with Group 1.

Group 1: Now the above are *aggressive* assumptions. We assume you have no debt, we assume you save 50% and we assume you consistently return 7% for 24 years straight (7% per year and then at the end 7% compounded for 14 years) making you 45 years old. In this situation even if we assume you are an incredible employee you can see that only the Tech/Enterprise Sales and Banking paths give you a shot at $5M by the time you’re 45 years old.

Unrealistic: As a point of emphasis these high numbers are unrealistic. It would put you in the top 0.1% of all performers in each category. 1) We assume you’re living off of $36K a year ($3K a month) in your first year out of college, 2) assumes you *never* get laid off, 3) assumes you are constantly promoted, 4) assumes zero set backs and constant 50% savings rate, 5) assumes no life events such as a wedding, health event etc and 6) assumes you had *no* debt even if you went to law school or medical school. Hopefully we can agree that these assumptions are ultra aggressive and a 40% tax rate is a good enough estimate (at $800K+ if you live in NYC your tax rate is higher).

Probability: if your goal is to get to $5M, your best chance is the three categories we mentioned. The other ones are likely going to miss the mark by a factor of 30-50%. A big miss.

Group 2: So you want to get to $10M+? Guess what, unless you grew up upper middle class it is almost impossible to do it with a career. As you saw from the above you *might* be able to get there by your 40s assuming you live way below your means are a solid investor and operate as a Rockstar employee. Part of the reason why upper middle class people push their kids into these careers is that they want them to simply “carry on” the future generations. This is the most risk averse path (banking, tech and enterprise sales)

As you can see if you create a single successful e-commerce business (even if it takes you six years to make your first $20K) once you create a successful one you’re pretty much set. It nearly doubles your net worth since you can *sell* your business. You cannot sell your prestigious career at XYZ company.

Probabilities Suggest? Since a huge chunk of your net worth is going to be tied to your side venture it is better to start today. It is also a lot smarter to choose a path with the highest *chance* of success. This means you do not follow what you “love”. You do not go into writing. You do not go into painting. You do not go into making music. You find the most monetizable skill you have and run in that direction. If you are a good writer you need to learn to copywrite and sell things to people (conversions = massive income). If you are good at art, you go into UX/UI design - you don’t sit on a street corner selling paintings for $20 hoping to be “seen”. If you are good at music, you go work at an advertising company at minimum (cinema etc.) instead of trying to be “seen” at random pop up events. Yes. There are exceptions to the rule (Kanye West, other rappers etc.). However. We’re playing a game of probabilities not hopes and dreams.

Group 3: So you made it after all. Maybe you end up becoming a cartoon animal since there is nothing else to do. Maybe you end up completely losing it and burn all your money on degenerate activities. Maybe you continue to search for a new high and go into something even more dangerous. We don’t know. The only way to figure out what you really wanted to do with your life is to make it in the first place.

Probabilities Suggest: Chances of getting here are already low so we have no real advice here. You made it. The only thing we’d suggest? Avoid making the world a worse place.

Part 4 - Human Psychology

The people who have never made more than $100,000 US Token in their entire lives will say “hey man why don’t you just hand out everything you made”. The reality? This actually harms society. You learn that later in life.

Why? Think back to when you were a kid. If you had to work hard to get something (a pair of shoes for example) you took care of them. If someone ever gave you something for free you treated it like complete garbage.

The same goes for making money. What you learn is that teaching people how to get it themselves is not only more rewarding but smarter. If you try to give people stuff for free they just abuse you “give a man an inch and he’ll take a mile”.

We don’t cater to people looking for free handouts. We cater to people who wanted to win in the first place. The big joke is that the people who want to win are willing to pay for advice, they are willing to lose money on their first couple of ventures and they are willing to take *risk*. Beggars are unwilling to take risk which is why they beg in the first place.

Final note on this. The funniest thing is that the winners always stick around. If you teach a man to fish he’ll actually be your friend for life. If you give a man a fish he’ll just expect to eat for free any time he hangs out with you. You can decide which type of person ends up being a drain on society and which one ends up creating value.

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Q&A: For the Q&A here you may ask anything related to careers. We’ll keep it niche. We’re going through some stuff related to 02/02/2022. IYKYK.

Disclaimer: None of this is to be deemed legal or financial advice of any kind. You’re reading information created by anonymous tech-bankers who left the industry for affiliate marketing and eventually e-commerce. Now we’re attempting to build an army of turbo autist winners.