The Quick Fixes, Simple Opinion on ChatGPT and Treasuries
Level 1 - NGMI
Welcome Avatar! If you’ve somehow found this side of the web by accident we’re looking for a quick purge.
If someone spends more money and time being entertained vs. iterating and trying to build over and over again. They are NGMI anyway.
This should easily reduce down the numbers. Part one will ensure we’re only attracting people who take action. By walking through the logic of “instant results”.
Part 1 - The Quick Fix
In 2022 we saw people lose everything. This is not good and is painful to watch. The bigger point is “why” they lost everything. In a cruel twist of fate, what you realize is that habits and thought process determine wealth preservation over the long-run.
Computer Coin Lotto Tickets
In 2021 we took ridicule all year for saying “sell half at doubles to free roll”. Even Zhu Su himself tweeted out that this was a terrible strategy.
This is because people view crypto as “lotto tickets (gambling)” they don’t view it as building out a secondary digital financial system (the first digital one refers to banking/electronic fund transfers).
Therefore, we’re quite confident that the space will never die. How are we sure? The comments we see on Crypto Twitter.
The logic is that you should invest in the scams and sell before they blow up. Yes really. The logic is to create terrible habits of finding the next “mega scam pump” and being able to miraculously sell at the right time: Luna, CEL, FTX, etc.
Conclusion: Don’t worry too much about the space being dead forever. The gambling and obsession for a quick fix will come back. They don’t want to build a wifi business. They don’t want to create any transferable skills. They just want to get the money ASAP and be rich with nothing to offer the world.
Okay, So What *Does* Work
We can point to the below example pretty quickly. While it is unclear if Coquito will be successful in Content marketing you can tell he “gets it”.
Sharing military videos? Great you may get a bunch of likes but you won’t make any money. Not a diss at all on the military. Just a comment on how sharing videos does *not* solve a pain point or problem. It is entertaining and would not result in sales of products.
Swimming? Won’t go into details. That said, we did mention to the anon that it was probably too niche. In the end, he tried anyway (we don’t know much about how large that audience is) and he realized the same. While he could solve some pain points (right way to train, prep etc.) the market was too small.
Now Content Marketing: This is the third iteration. Once again there are no guarantees. If we see the name pop up in the future (every couple of months) it’ll probably be the right direction. If we don’t, the anon needs to go back to the drawing board.
The important message here? This strategy works.
Whatever skill Coquito has needs to solve a pain point. And. He has to be good at it. Everyone in the world is likely good at *one* thing (at minimum). The goal is to figure out how to monetize that one skill. That is what you were put on planet earth to do.
Figure out your talents and give that to the world. Otherwise you’ll be punished for withholding your skills.
People Won’t Change
2001 tech bubble, 2008 Real Estate bubble, first Bitcoin bubble (a “faster bitcoin”), 2017 bubble "(“ICOs”) and then 2021 DeFi, NFTs and Ponzis (a “copy pasted financial system”).
As you can see, since there is a new wave of hype every 3-4 years people are seeing constant sudden opportunities for wealth. The irony here is that the same people who made it in the first BTC wave are the same people who were left in 2017 and are the same people still on CT in 2023.
The reasoning is simple: Risk Management and Building
Smart people do two things: 1) build their income at all costs and 2) *only* reinvest when they can’t figure out anything else! Think that through quickly. If you’re hoping to get rich buying $3K worth of stuff per month, it isn’t going to happen. If your plan is to build income over a decade and go from investing $3K a month to $30K a month then to $50K a month? That will work.
Eventually some of those investments you make will go vertical and you’ll blow past your expectations. You’ll also be wise enough to sell some of it back to something safer given how hard it was to earn.
Conclusion: The only people who should be here need to agree on the same old proof point: 1) get career in tech/Wall St/Sales - or any other industry with similar pay as this, 2) spin up wifi biz, 3) work on wifi biz until it makes 2x more than your career and 4) after that you quit and look into investing heavily.
New Year, New Lies
It’s 2023. Some people have followed this side of the web since 2016 and didn’t start until last year! Not a knock on pickle at all, in fact he already makes a living wage online now. The message is the same “just start”
Despite being talented (we’ve worked with him several times) he never even started. Now his only message is “wish i started earlier” similar to a few other jungle anons like
If you want something more serious think about it like this. If you’ve said “you’ll do something” but haven’t done it in years, you’re no longer just talking. You are now a liar.
On that note, as mentioned every post for two years. If you have a skill to show the world we’re more than happy to see it.
If you don’t have a specific skill there is always E-com which will be around forever.
Part 2 - ChatGPT Overhyped?
Happy to be wrong here as there was a big debate when stating “ChatGPT will be Clubhouse” IE. forgotten within 12 months. Perhaps we are wrong. The best argument so far has been training for things like specialized meals.
Not upset at all by the criticism instead we’ll explain our thought process here.
Too Optimistic: Make no mistake we’re aware the robots will take over. Building homes, making fast food, those robot cafes etc. That said, we’d make the bet that most engineers are *too* optimistic. They say things that are true but over-estimate how long it takes to truly roll out.
Self Driving Cars: Here is an example. In 2017 during the second crypto run, people were upset it was taking up the conversation vs. “Artificial Intelligence”. This led to some bold claims that we would all be in self driving cars by 2025 or so (fully self driving!).
If you look at where we stand today, the chances are simply too low at this point. If you’ve seen the test runs of self driving cars you know they do not drive smooth. They brake hard. They get real cautious around any crosswalk to the point of freezing up at times etc.
Our Current Conclusion: Therefore, our current *estimate* is that ChatGPT will be the first iteration and forgotten. It costs too much to run at $3M a day and with interest rates going way up, burning through money at all times has a real cost.
Combine that with overly optimistic timelines and we’d take the under. If you want another good text based example just ask affiliates what they though about “black hat” in 2008-2010. It is 2023 and it is *still* around.
The reason being incentives (the big companies actually don’t mind having some black hat on there so they can make money!). They wont say this publicly of course
Conclusion: Therefore still interested in hearing any *current* real use cases beyond cheating on a multiple choice test. While you can try to get traffic running AI scripts, those websites go down extremely fast as algorithms catch them.
Also interested in the time-line. If someone is close to this type of training for search, would love to hear what the current timeline is for being able to truly personalize to the individual level.
Emphasis, we’re not fools. Self driving is coming, AI for search is coming. The question is how long it takes and we’d take the under when compared to current aggressive predictions.
Part 3 - Unrelated Note on Treasuries
For what it is worth, if your plan is to wait out Q1 (layoffs), Treasuries are a good way to do it. Below is a yield table from Bloomberg.
This is completely unrelated to the other two topics but we get the question a lot for some reason. If you think there are good options in about 3 months, would just use the 4.34% yield lock for now. If you think they will bottom out in 6, 12 o 24 or 60 months, go ahead and lock those in.
4.0-4.75% is significant. Cap rates on homes are around 5-6% and that has risk associated with it (bad renter, damage, unforeseen event etc). While tax deductions are real, anything above 4% is appealing if your goal is to wait it out a bit.
On that note, onward and upward. We’ll have a lot of fun stuff to start January (E-com ideas) and of course some new jungle members with big announcements
Stay Toon’d
Disclaimer: None of this is to be deemed legal or financial advice of any kind. These are *opinions* written by an anonymous group of Ex-Wall Street Tech Bankers and software engineers who moved into affiliate marketing and e-commerce. We’re an advisor for Synapse Protocol 2022-2024E.
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God I was cringing so hard writing my "2023" post and reminiscing about all that inaction. Never again.
But for those that still need to a push to start, look at the successful people in the Jungle. BowTiedOctopod is a great example. Informative Substack, clean website that makes items easy to buy. You can essentially copy that model with your own niche information and products.
Ive used and trained multiple GPT systems for pas couple years and have some observations:
If you break down ChatGPT as system, the fundamental thing is that it is trained on massive amounts of data curated from the internet essentially or in end point society. If you break down the design it relies on mass amounts of data from open sources(over 45gb). this data is a reflection of society, which in terms of intelligence averages to 85 and 115 IQ range(think bell curve), so it wont be brilliant. Even fine tuning might give it a few + iq points, but there will be no brilliance of understanding or great knowledge. So at core Chat GPT is an expensive pattern recognizer that can write exceptionally well, but writing is not the leverage point(unless if you are lazy), its about writing the right thing, formulating and executing better ideas, etc. this system cant do that. In the industry - if it was truly brilliant, you wouldn't get access to it. They are however using the questions you ask it(millions) to uses a new training data for future versions)