2025 Last Chance for Easy Gains in Majors

Level 2- Value Investor

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This will be short. Last shot for majors is 2025.

As you know we’re entering into year 4 of the standard cycle in crypto. We’ve seen completely worthless comments comparing returns over 3-4 year frame marking to market at the worst possible times. If you were to just do 5 years, there is basically no time frame where you’re not up outrageous amounts of money. Since people have the patience and foresight of school children they end up buying only when its trending on CNBC.

Anyway.

This is basically the last cycle where we will even bother talking about BTC/ETH/SOL. There is absolutely no way to get excess returns in them due to diminishing returns and you’ll be forced to research applications/infrastructure.

Otherwise? Will largely beat the S&P/QQQ but won’t be insane like the numbers you’re seeing now.

Diminishing Returns

“Diminishing Returns is the principle that, after a certain point, each additional unit of input (like labor or capital) results in a smaller increase in output. For instance, if adding one worker increases productivity, adding several more may eventually result in smaller gains as the workspace or resources become constrained.”

Outside of a full clown car Zimbabwe printing festival, diminishing returns will hit the crypto currency space from a percentage return perspective. This is because the amount of money required to move the asset class goes no where but up. Back in 2013 we topped out at $1,200 then $20K in 2017 (~17x) then $69K (3.45x) and now ????

It’s unlikely you get anything higher than a 3.45x because the returns should diminish as there are only so many buyers without a massive catalyst (nation state, trillion dollar companies like MSFT purchasing etc.)

What this also means is that the protocol layer becomes a stable/lower risk asset in the new financial system. Like buying Apple in 2016 or so.

For a proxy, watch as the amount of BTC on exchanges continues to make a new low. It’ll probably stabilize close to 2M and you’ll finally be back in balance of buyers/sellers to avoid a full “Bitcoin Exchange Run”

Getting a General Proxy

Even though BTC will eventually pass Gold in Market Cap (opinion) it doesn’t mean the returns will always be there in a meaningful way. To make an example of this, passing all stocks is probably “easy money” but getting past there requires a brand new group of buyers: nation states, pensions etc. That happens a lot slower vs. a fund manager clicking buy for 5% exposure to it.

This means you can easily hold major coins like BTC/ETH under $3.5T in market cap but beyond that you have to wait a long time for them to really gain ground on boring stuff like yellow rocks. Just the name of the game. It’ll go up but won’t be as exciting.

New Opportunities

If you invested in the majors early, then you likely have a few hundred BTC and a few thousand ETH as an example. This was essentially buying the “operating system”. In traditional terms it would be like owning Apple iOS or Microsoft near IPO. Absolutely insane returns if you were willing to stick out all the bear markets (2001 crash, 2008 crash etc.)

The new opportunities will be in future disintermediation technologies built on top of the operating system. If you invested in Uber that’s just an App largely built on-top Apple/Android.

PolyMarket Starts It: We’re not invested in PolyMarket and don’t recommend gambling. Just to be clear. Instead it is a good example of how third parties will be dis-intermediated in the future

Instead of paying 10% fees each way to place a wager, that can be dropped to a few points and create an efficient market for betting/prediction. We already saw how it was directionally a much better predictor of the election versus worthless stuff like Nate Silver polling boomers.

What’s Next?

A lot actually. If you stick around.

• Soon we’ll have computing peer to peer with storage being the most likely use case (just not through VC coin attacks like Filecoin)

• We’ll have new ways to order an “uber” via the blockchain that’ll avoid the insane fees charged by the middle man

• We’ll remove insane voter fraud by having blockchain identification systems that give each person one address one vote

• We’ll remove the boring traditional system of 9:30am to 4PM trading and move to a more 21st century 24/7 market

• Instead of trading just stable coins on chain, you will be able to trade stocks, bonds, commodities and other assets (unlikely real estate due to government laws and rental laws)

If any of this sounds interesting to you then strap in. You’re exiting the protocol application investing time period and will be entering into the application investing time period.

Will you make it? Who knows. Only time will tell. By 2025 the winners in applications will likely be clear. Just don’t miss it and ruin your bloodline.

Good luck and Stay Toon’d!

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Disclaimer: None of this is to be deemed legal or financial advice of any kind. These are *opinions* written by an anonymous group of Ex-Wall Street Tech Bankers and software engineers who moved into affiliate marketing and e-commerce.

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