Welcome Avatar! Feeling a creative, happy and excited mood. This means one thing and one thing only. We’re walking straight into another massive KO punch from Godzilla or there will be a massive stroke of unearned luck out of left field. There can only be one of the two since it is impossible to be running on Cloud 9 without a care in the world.
On that note we have two unrelated topics to cover, one more cultural and prediction based. The other more logical and actionable that 99.9% won’t listen to. We’ve already accepted the fact that good information is rarely followed and people like learning the hard way eating 2, 3, 4, or even 10 years of their lives trying to do it “their” way which of course doesn’t work.
Onto the Future of America - Long Degeneracy.
Part 1: Long Degeneracy and Instant Gratification
Instead of complaining about the future of the USA, which is certainly more degeneracy, loneliness and gripping hold onto instant gratification… one should simply understand why it is happening and capitalize on it.
Every year there is always something new to capitalize on. Back in the day it was ring tones. More recently, there were those fidget spinner things and for a short period there were those 7-8 figure “agencies” (Rest in Peace to all).
Expectation
The long-term trend is degeneracy. Way back in the day it was fun to talk about going to parties, hook up culture and all of that. Now the trend is already solidified and in motion.
If you’re really in the know, you understand how prevalent “arrangements” are in today’s society and how common it is for the youth to hook up with 10s to 100s of people within a short time frame.
There isn’t anything that you can do about it. Read that again. There is nothing you can do about it.
The extreme bible thumpers will say that you can be the “change you want see” and really impact society (not realistic). And. On the other extreme the full on degenerate acceptance life leads to Nilhism and fried dopamine receptors (you’re actually already seeing this with people who OD’d on Adderall, psychedelics and other substances). The true future is building your own insulated group (hence BowTiedJungle in the first place).
So. If we know the following trends are here to stay: 1) gambling, 2) quick fixes, 3) drugs, 4) partying/sugar arrangements and 5) complete emphasis on fast results, you have the blueprint to avoid all of this stuff and get miles ahead in less than 5-10 years or so. *gasps a whopping 5-10 years to get crazy rich is too long!*. Better go find a FOREX course for turning $20K into $500K in 6 months! Only $20K to sign up!
Why It Is Happening
This isn’t really important but people obsess over knowing the “why”. The why is actually simple. It is due to the platform nature of the USA. There are now “platforms” that dominate everything. Twitter, Instagram, Pinterest, TikTok etc. Once you see platforms, you see what we mean.
Platforms are full of billions of people. They are also extremely easy tools to trick people. The easiest example is finding accounts with say 100,000 followers that have *MORE* than 100 likes on every post. Read that again. If you think that it “should” be this way you’ve never run a single website in your life and we know it for sure.
The reasoning is simple. The platforms themselves only show certain content to your audience. If you’re able to have massive numbers on all interactions, you’re either a fraud or you’re Kanye West/Lebron James big. Chances are low anyone gets that big in a few short months unless you’re a musician or movie star with a hit picture.
$500 if you can figure out whose site analytics are here - from similarweb. We’ll give you a hint they have over “500,000 followers on socials”. Their likes are always north of 100 and their interactions are always high (hint: bots)
What does this have to do with degeneracy and short term? Well people simply can’t tell the difference! Someone using these platforms sees a person blow up and they think the fast result is legit! They can’t tell the difference because they don’t even know what google analytics is.
Seriously. They don’t.
Therefore, as the platforms continue to take more and more market share, people will fall deeper and deeper into the “fast money” is possible pit.
Now For the Balance
Really simple honestly. You split your life into two buckets. For years we’ve recommended going out 2x a week max since you should be busy building long-term wealth. The trick here is not being psyoped into believing anyone. If a girl tells you she is “only dating you” just assume it’s a lie especially if you met at some night venue.
When the dude next to you says he is making $50K a month already at age 22 tell him “amazing wish i could do that!”. This will allow you to simply live a normal social life as you scale your real exit plan.
Here is an example: Assuming you’re not rich yet and you’re in your 20s you simply stack all of the degeneracy into your favor. If you’re on the west coast you would go to Vegas to party. Since you know everyone is a degenerate, the activity is taking people to go gamble and giving them some free money to blow. Since they are all adrenaline junkies you know they will love it and you’ll be the source of entertainment. In the meantime you can chill drink whatever you like as the host comes around and move on.
The other great thing about this is you would be able to completely separate your social life from your work life. If most of your partying is taking place in Vegas, places like Cancun etc. Then you’re looking at a pretty contained environment. Please don’t tell us you’re looking for your future wife at XS night club on a Saturday.
Meanwhile… When you’re done going out and partying, you simply come back. Go back to work and shut everything off again. Before getting upset about this, by being unavailable more than you are available it actually helps you. Yes really.
If you’re spending all day texting and calling people for social reasons you just seem desperate and boring. This actually maximizes the return on your time even more. You’re the fun person but you’re just not able to go out that much because you’re mysteriously always busy doing something.
Note: Don’t be foolish enough to tell your co-workers or friends your plan to escape. We’ve said this for 10 years. Your co-workers are not your friends. Your co-workers are not your friends. Your co-workers are not your friends. Your co-workers are not your friends.
How This Will Escalate
If you think it isn’t going to escalate, think again! There will be no return to the past. Go ahead and throw that ludicrous idea out with the bath water.
What will happen is a natural progression as follows: 1) ultra rich people with limited need for human capital, 2) push down of upper middle class into the new middle class - looking at you anyone in the $150-200K W-2 range, 3) pressure on middle class to simply break even and 4) several of the people breaking even… pushed into low income.
As this happens the same old thing will occur: people get offended easily. That is probably the most important four words we’ve written here in some years related to the future of the USA and impact of degenerate culture. Since everyone *thinks* people are getting super rich (super fast) around them, they will be extremely offended if you don’t think they are rich.
This is a downward spiral for big reasons. High-performing producers get frustrated and aggressively automate the middle performers out of positions. They also decide to take on the extra work since they *don’t* want to be trapped in the $150-200K W-2 cell where they are surviving but barely.
We strongly recommend looking out for this trend. If someone is easily offended assume they are suffering from a declining biz or poor performance reviews constantly. The ones performing well will recognize these people and create massive physical and virtual distance from them by removing all necessary communication lines.
Profiting On This Direction
We’ve got strong opinions that this is the direction of the USA (and as usual you’re free to disagree). If you agree with it then there are some simple ways to position yourself for success
Learn ads is an absolute must in today’s world. One of the cartoons we talk to monthly refers to it as a “license to print money”. Which is entirely true. If you can make an amazing ad and spend $10,000 to get $13,000 back you should spend everything you have since its a 30% instant return. Learning ads in the “need solution now age” = absurd amounts of profits
The downside of course is that if you make a bad ad, you could lose it just as fast as you made it. Look no further than Bud Light which got absolutely obliterated with a single decision. Don’t feel too bad for them though since there was no logical reason to try that angle from any research
If you can get into pharmacy sales or anything drug related you’ll make a killing going forward. This is more likely your paycheck/W-2 as you scale your side business. That said, the market will be a massive money maker. More meds, SSRIs etc will be the future
On the same vain *anything* that makes women more attractive will be here for decades. This could be anything from fat loss pills, fat loss surgery, lipstick, skin care, photo filters that make them look better etc. In short, vanity sells
Avoid selling to normal men. It’s at a point where you’re simply better off avoiding men. They will be struggling financially for the most part and they are unlikely to be repeat customers. Small exceptions would be if you’re a celebrity selling them sneakers or you’re selling them insecurity via Rolexes, Sports cars etc. Golf may also be one that’s worth a look (starting a driving range for example). In short, only target rich men if you must go down this road
Any internet based gambling would be a winner as well. We’re mulling over an online crypto casino that is built only with smart contracts to lower the overhead (but that’s currently just an afterthought). In short, gambling up.
Once again you’re free to disagree or debate this general trend/belief. We’re pretty convinced there is no shot of it being reversed since it is a self fulfilling prophecy: 1) ultra rich get richer who have no interest in settling - increased degeneracy, 2) women meet some of these men and think they can “capture” them resulting in a continuous down turn, 3) all of this involves alcohol and drugs where no one in the middle can participate since they can’t afford it and don’t get invited, 4) this leads to more insecurity and anxiety which means - people get offended easily and 5) more people pushed down the socioeconomic ladder while those at the top simply get to pick and choose what they interact with - the richest ones keeping a low profile.
Trad Life Comment
We constantly get questions about families and kids. We draw a hard red line here. If you’re asking anyone in the world for advice on these topics, you should stop right there. Those are serious topics that are not fun and games. You should be able to make those life changing decisions yourself and not be influenced by anyone: this includes your best friends, your parents and any influencer. If you’re asking for help on something serious and life changing like that, you’ve already lost.
Part 2: Milking Corporate America
Already wrote it but before starting. Your co-workers are not your friends. Your co-workers are not your friends. Your co-workers are not your friends. Your co-workers are not your friends.
Corporate America is becoming much more KPI based and heavily politics based if you’re in a secular declining industry. In growth industries politics and prestige have little say in who gets promoted or demoted. In declining industries both become enormous portions of the review component (ta da explained Wall St. in one sentence!).
Lucky for you, it does not matter much if you’re in a growing or declining industry if your plan is to escape. Unless you’re joining something like Blackberry at the peak, the chances of you joining a place like Google and being unemployed in 5-10 years is unlikely with good performance. Highly unlikely.
What is Good Performance
The star performer (ranked #1) is always liked by everyone. This person is terribly underpaid. Even though he gets $10,000 more than everyone else and later $20K more. It just isn’t worth it. He is able to do great work for some guy who generates nearly nothing for the firm and also generates great work for the guy responsible for the “80” part of the 80/20 rule.
The ideal move is simple and counterintuitive to what you hear when you’re in college. Again we assume you want to get rich. If your goal is to get to $1-2M ignore all of this and go for the biggest baddest most prestigious company you can find. Big Tech, Bulge Bracket etc. Then grind hard and appease everyone
That aside here is what you “should” do.
Find a middle or upper middle tier firm think something like Stifel for Wall St. Think something like Oracle for tech sales. Think pet food companies. Anything that is “kind of growing” but not a culture of we must bring in A+ talent and win everything or else we’re firing the whole branch
Get into a profit generating role. This is front office and the cleanest example is sales
At this point you’ve made a significant decision. You’ve already decided that working 100 hours a week and being stared at like a goldfish in a bowl isn’t the best environment to escape. By setting yourself up this way, you’ll have much less oversight. Now to the next step.
Attach yourself as fast as possible to the rainmaker. If you can’t figure out who it is, you need to grind it out for at least 1-2 months. Make everyone feel good about you until you figure out who the main real guy is. Then slowly adjust your efforts and political positioning in that direction
Note: there is some luck here. Would be lying if we said there wasn’t. You might need to do this again later if people leave or you’re stuck under the thumb of a middle performer. Middle performer is the worst since they work ungodly hours trying to make it up the ladder to be well liked
Assuming that is done you are officially set. Stay well liked within there and you’ll always be up for promotion but never their favorite. Don’t blow it. Stick with being in that position. Congratulate the #1 guy in your job title cohort and say it with a big honest smile. You should be happy he exists. He prevents you from getting all the additional garbage work
Bring in a separate laptop for taking notes. No. No one will care. If someone does care it means you’re not well liked or you’re at a huge sweat shop like NYC head quarters of a bulge bracket (you broke step 1)
No one else matters. We get a lot of crazy emails about happy hours and all that stuff. Read it again. No one else matters.
If you are generating profits for the firm and liked by the big rain maker you don’t need to do any of that stuff. If the head of the company is showing up then *YES* you show up. However, if you’re well liked by the main guy, the only events you need to show up to are where he cares and is present. All other team building riff raff can be ignored.
Final step is keeping the wheels moving
At the end of the year run the *you* P&L. Calculate how much you generated for the firm (in sales this is easy). Figure out how much you make salary + bonus. Figure out the profit margin
Go to the annual filing figure out the profit margin of the division and figure out the profit margin of the firm
You better be green. This means above on both metrics
That’s really it. If you’re following this you will be in a slow moving upward direction. If you get promoted you simply work “harder than usual” for the first 3 months before and first 3 months after promotion. Don’t mess up the profit margin calculation they run on you. Keep repeating this until you suddenly hand in your keys.
But My Company Cares About Culture
If you believe this at all, you are NGMI.
Companies are built to drive higher revenue, profits and shareholder value. You may have an amazing relationship with your current boss but we can assure you if layoffs come it isn’t him who is making the decision. It isn’t even his boss, it is his boss’s boss. That is how small 99% of people are within the corporate hierarchy. Decisions are made like this because they do not want to have any emotions tied to decision making.
As a note, even a Managing Director at a bank is just another dude. Yes really. Unless you’re the head of investment banking or a massive rain maker, you’re just a line item as well. This is why MDs try to keep teams slightly bigger than they like. The smart MDs always have a VP close by so they have a big fat $500,000 line item to cut if they need to. They are barely registering on the cogs of a major bank. Above the Managing Director line and you’re looking at people who are monitored closely since they are likely less disposable/replaceable.
Note: want to know how big a position is? If you can look up the total compensation/salary+bonus on google it isn’t an important position in the eyes of the CEO. Think about it. How many “head of banking” compensation sheets exist? They don’t. Exception to the rule is if you’re in the DEF-14A (IYKYK).
Pro Tips on What to Monitor and Not Say
Bought a house? Tell no one. They will think they can pay you less since you’re trapped into a 30-year payment schedule and you’re now ring fenced to that city for jobs
P&L on Own Boss: Run a P&L on your own boss and division. This tells you if you’re still in the right boat. Once a year max.
Health Event? Tell no one. The vast majority of health care costs for a company are derived by about 10% of employees (use 80/20 if you want to be safe). They will look at the costs. If you’re in a big company and tell no one it is unlikely they take the time to look at it
If you get married? Tell no one. They will use this against you. You are now potentially higher cost due to health care and other items
Change of Management? Wake up! Figure out which division they are trying to shake up. The vast majority of the time nothing really changes. However, it’s good to pay attention to major changes. Always know who is in charge of your division, in charge means “who fires the division head”
Your Rainmaker Boss Leaves? Decision time! Calculate if it is safer to follow based on his likely returns or if the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. Wish we had a hard and fast rule here but we don’t since it’s just too complicated. If you don’t get invited to join? That’s hilarious! It means he never liked you in the first place but you somehow got attached to him (good work!)
Calculate All Benefits: While a 401K will never make you rich (source). You should know all the benefits in the employee handbook: 1) take the company match if they have it, 2) figure out if there is health/dental items you can take advantage of and 3) look up all the promo benefits from gyms to transportation. Take advantage of all of it but don’t tell people what you are doing (seeing a theme?). The company won’t notice you’re using every single cent you can find. They will notice if you’re constantly talking about it though
Never quit till you’re making 2x your W-2 *after tax* earnings from your other venture.
That about does it. Despite the many warning and clear steps majority will make some of these mistakes. We’re no longer mad about it, we’re sad about it.
While some of these have minimal costs (telling people you’re maxing out your 401K for example), if you slip on the big ones like quitting too early you could be setting yourself back 3, 5, 7 or even 10 years. Time you can’t get back.
Before signing off. This path isn’t for everyone.
There are some people who do enjoy waking up every morning putting on that collar shirt, commuting in and talking on the phone all day in an office. Never understood it but there are corporate drones out there who love it (yes they do exist). If that’s you, then all of this can be ignored. We suggest you go into the biggest and baddest company with the most corporate drone culture possible.
You’ll make more money that way and enjoy it anyway so that’s the right approach! Corporate drone types are horrific business operators.
On that Note, Back to the Tent and appreciate all of your support!
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This could be the best thing you’ve written since the WSP days Bull. I now have the perfect article to send to people who are in their 20s
Hah - I have a one person who is a parallel level role as me who stuck their neck out to take on the "more" responsibility to "get ahead".
Told them in earnest - "I want you to get promoted!" and ego stroked the whole way for when they succeed. I'm the niche operator of one of the profit centers, with a team of specialists I hand built - and intend to keep it that way.
Quick Laptop tip - if forced to go into an office and our concerned about bring your own device - just buy the same model as your work laptop as a personal one.