Announcements, Bet on Winners, Flex Later and Risk Tolerance.

Level 2 - Value Investor

Welcome Avatar! Lots of stuff to cover today, we’re sending this out early in European time since we have to coordinate for a few things: 1) we’re hiring a DeFi Person to work with BowTiedDuck, this is due over the next 24-36 hours (due to time zone issues) see this post for more details (Senior DeFi Role - Application Due May 10 - BowTied Bull (substack.com); 2) we’re starting BTB TV on Tuesday, an important video will be released and yes we will sporadically give people US Token or another coin if we hold competitions, 3) the Jungle has been built out and this is an *aggregator*. Be smart/careful here as it will simply follow all the BowTiedAnimals and we will have special rewards there – randomly as well. So we’re clear. No one knows who any of these people are including us – which is the point of the Jungle and 4) we’re going to give away some free stuff here for college students.

Organizing…

DeFi Position Reminder: For those too lazy to click the link here it is: Round 1: If you are interested in applying you can start today! Applications will be due May 10, 2021 (do not send your application in early). Again. Do not send us the application early we will collect all of them on May 10, 2021.

Application: You must answer five questions: 1) How would you explain DeFi to a beginner, 2) How would you value a DeFi Protocol, 3) How would you assess the safety of the protocol - potential loss of funds/rugs etc, 4) How much time do you have to dedicate to this role - you are free to keep your current income streams and 5) give us a rough idea of how much you’d want to make for the time you’re dedicating to the project. We need to have a rough idea of compensation so we can calculate the value you’re adding. We don’t need to know what you do or where you live. Just need to know time and rough income expected/wanted. 

All of this must be answered in *one page* size 12 Arial Font. This will make the application entirely fair. If it is over one page you will be disqualified, if you shrink the font… also disqualified. Charts/tables are accepted as long as it does not go over 1 page. Being long-winded is not a good sign. It means you’re a poor communicator.

How to send in application? On May 10, 2021. You message @BowTiedBull on Twitter via a normal twitter interaction. We will send a quick DM saying “submit” and you simply attach the screen cap of the write up or the one page PDF. We’ll download it and delete everything. Do not send anything in early.

BTB TV: Starting this week we will begin the scale out the fun we have for Troll Tuesdays. The Kiwi will take care of a lot of the video items starting on May 11. For those that are wondering… No… We don’t know who it is. Many have tried (and failed) to figure out how it works and will unlikely succeed.

The point? Scale out a decentralized group of jungle animals (with different skills) and it is impossible to figure out who is who as the numbers grow. The Jungle is already at 100+ Avatars. The point of this massive project? Find talented people and reward them for adding value without a name, race, gender or location. That’s what the future looks like. Can’t claim “discrimination” when no one even knows who they are.

Tuesday May 11, we will release the first official BTB Video. It will be short at around 2 minutes. It will also be one of the most important videos you’ve seen! (who knows if we’re joking or not)

The BowTiedJungle: You are *free* to come and go. Our basic belief is this. If you’re taking the time to create a BowTiedAnimal, chances are you’ve followed us for a while and have a specific skill. We’ll monitor the account and see if there are people that can start their own mini side hustles. In fact one of the chimps already made a few hundred bucks as a graphics design specialist. We have no idea how this scales out in the future but if you’re in the Jungle it is a *lot* more likely that your tweets/info end up in our feed (assuming it is good).

Since many of you suddenly joined the Jungle already we’ll send the account some US Token/Efferium/BTC to do a giveaway. More on this by end of week as we organize it.

College Students: Sometimes we forget that many of you are actually new to BTB. Therefore if you have a .edu address (ie. prove you are in college) we will send you *all three* of our prior books for free. This will be first come first serve for the first 50 (yes 50!).

Why? A few reasons: 1) college students have gotten hit hard for no reason due to COVID, 2) many of you are new and need to know the basics and 3) since the books were published in 2016/2017/2019 they are a bit stale (need an update) and will give people proof that we’re been pretty accurate predictors of the future.

If you are a college student with a .edu email, simply ping the BowTiedBull twitter account over the next 24-48 hours. Limited to first 50 people.

Main Program Think Like a Winner!

Now for the fun stuff. If you were watching our twitter account you made some US Token by betting on Canelo Alvarez, the best current boxer in the world. Sure. That sentence will annoy people and they will claim that someone else is the best (Joshua, Fury, Teofimo etc.). That is fine. When we refer to best *current* boxer we’re using the language from an ROI/Return perspective.

People Hate Winners: Canelo has a longer track record and a *much* bigger audience. This is simply a fact based on numbers. While certain specific fights may draw bigger numbers if you look at Canelo *today* the line is always wrong. Always. This is because people who don’t make it to DeGen Island love betting against the favorite. Since they don’t understand what it means to be elite. The line moves in the wrong direction.

Flashback. Go back to when Mayweather was fighting (we think he’s the best of all time since he never lost). When he fought Manny, people complained that it was “boring”. That is when you know the clowns are in the mix. Clowns believe that you should always “fight aggressive” and not fight to win. Mayweather always fought to win. Which is why he never lost. Never got brain damage. Always loved by people who knew the sport (hated by passerby “fans”).

Canelo is in the same boat today. He is nicknamed Cinnamon, he has red hair, he is Mexican. This is a great cocktail. Even a lot of Mexican people don’t like him because he doesn’t “look” Mexican. Whatever that means. What does this mean for you? It means pay attention to the line every single time he fights. He has enough haters that Clowns are “praying for him to lose”. This moves the line in your favor!

Bigger Picture: When you find someone who is clearly elite. Top 1, 2 or 3 in their field… You actually make more betting *on* them. This is because people don’t like winners. This applies to football, basketball, baseball etc. Admittedly we weren’t able to figure out the MMA stuff back in 2016-2018 and gave up on it (hard to see elite in that space for some reason).

The other areas are easier. You don’t bet against the following: 1) best player in any individual sport - this would apply to baseball where the pitcher is one of the key ingredients to the line, 2) the best CEO in any particular field and 3) the best marketer if they enter into a new business.

You can take this belief and even apply it to investing. While we’re more focused on crypto right now, when it comes to individual stock investing… don’t bet against geniuses is another good idea. You don’t bet against Zuckerberg, Musk, Bezos etc. You can begin to “bet against” them if they are a lot older. *Most* lose their aura/steps in their 60s based on what we’ve seen (remember nit-pickers this is a general statement!). Until then, simply avoid betting against geniuses.

Positive Investing Style: One reader hit us on Twitter and noticed “Over the last decade you’ve never posted an actual short position. Only that you wouldn’t buy. Why?”.  This is actually 100% true.

While we do make statements such as “feels like the top is in” or “wouldn’t be buying here anymore” we never really “bet on the decline”. Why? It is bad for your personality and psychology.

When you short something, you’re hoping that someone or something fails. The only people who enjoy winning on short positions are usually the same guys who look for scams/pump and dumps. While there *might* be a few choice times (1-2x every 2-3 years), it is not something we try to find. We try to find undervalued real investment ideas for the long-term 1-5 years and sometimes 10+ frames.

It just doesn’t feel right operating like a hater. Why would you enjoy seeing anyone or any company decline? It usually says a lot more about the person than the investment choice.

They are calculating and have high amounts of schadenfreude (terrible for mental health). The one exception is if you are liquidating someone who is already a terrible person. Example.

If a coordinated group of rich people attempt to pump something and you can buy puts at the top. That is one area where we’re fine with it. These guys do coordinated moves every time that have crushed retail for decades. Other than that? We try to find things that go up and time it out the best we can.

No Utopia! While the above feels good and is the right strategy… Remember. Be rational and reasonable. No one is coming to save you. Not the president. Not your rich friends/acquaintances. Not your teachers/professors. Not even your mom/dad. Save yourself.

If you operate with a positive sum belief you will still get screwed. We have *nothing* to say about any BowTiedAnimal today. And. We know something will happen and someone will get upset at some point. Who knows who it will be. Could be a random person we follow, could be a random person in the Jungle, could be something stupid at a troll event in the future. Who knows!

We’re not here to say that it’s all perfect. We’re here to say that if you adopt the winning belief system you will eventually get rid of all the haters. The haters are really just fans. They highlight your account and all you have to do is ignore them or block them. If you’re already rich? You have no interest in dealing with some random dude who is worth $5M US token or less. They don’t matter.

Be Aware of Your Surroundings

It is interesting. Many think we’re kidding when we’re saying to avoid flashy goods *for now*. They go back to our old comments from 2018-2019 with Gucci Oxfords and other luxury products. Those have disappeared after COVID-19 hit.

We’re dead serious about staying low-key *for now*.

Why? It is clear. In 2018-2019 it was okay to have some luxury goods. Rolex, a nice car and a nice home. Today? It is no longer as cool/interesting. People lost their jobs. People had their businesses shut down. Well off people lost tons of money and many even went bankrupt.

Back in 2018-2019 driving a flashy car was totally fine. Totally. Fine. In 2021? It is not smart.

Recently, Pop Smoke an up and coming popular rapper was killed by a 15 year old for a Rolex watch. That is insane. The reason? People are suffering. Before? If you had some flash to your lifestyle it was “aspirational” now it is just insulting. You’re driving by as hundreds of people are struggling to survive. Basic living expenses are rising and they lost a huge part of their savings in 2020. Be socially aware!

The above is absolutely terrible news as he was talented at his craft.

Instead Use the BTB Way to Flex? Start tipping 50% at restaurants when things open up. Tip everyone you can. Waiter, bartender, spa services, auto mechanic, coffee shop, hair salon etc. This will allow you to build up your surrounding community. These individuals will appreciate the money 100x more than you could possibly imagine.

They don’t care about your Lambo. They care about survival. Your ego will get a bigger boost when you realize you have a lot more acquaintances who actually like you vs. a bunch of semi-pro escorts who are trying to drain your net worth. When things are back to normal? You can go ahead and drive your Lambo to DeGen Island 2035 and things will be safe!

Want a current guess? We’d estimate the road to recovery will take a minimum of 3-4 years. Who knows. If you follow our plan and actually help your community it will be 2 years. This is the whole point of helping others win. Once things are normal, no one will care if you’re a successful guy driving a Lambo with a bunch of semi-pros in the car. They will laugh vs. marking you as a crime target.

Risk Modeling

For those that are on the Paid Substack you know our portfolio and general calls/set ups. For those that are not, it is good to develop your own risk model before looking at crypto, stocks and other higher risk investments. Below is a good summary based on where you are at life.

One Form of Income: You are behind. Again. You are behind. You need to do something (anything) to create a second form so if the first form goes to zero you can still cover living expenses. There are millions of ways to make this work. Free lance work. Re-selling products. Fixing watches/phones. Etc. There are no excuses.

If you are in this camp your risk model should be *low*. You’re not using your time wisely if you only have one way of earning a living. All time should be focused on finding ways to earn some side money. The Jungle is likely a good area to start if you’re willing to talk to random anons. Remember. If you had multiple forms of income, you wouldn’t *need* to YOLO on investments. You could YOLO with a small percentages since it would be a decent amount in US Token terms!

Two Forms of Income: Here you’re “stable”. If you get fired from your career or your side hustle goes to zero, you’re still earning a living wage. You’re fine. At this point your risk model should be *medium*. This means you *can* invest into higher risk stocks, crypto or other ventures. Since you already have some sort of other venture, you won’t do anything stupid with US tokens needed to reinvest in your biz.

Three Forms of Income: At this point the gloves are off. You can swing hard. If you have three ways to pay all living expenses: 1) income one, 2) income two and 3) passive income from Real estate/dividends… you can do much bigger ideas. Perhaps you can blog for a decade for free to build a group of smart turbo autists to take on the most corrupt systems in the world. Perhaps. As long as you don’t touch your financial independence income you can do as you please.

Four (or more) Forms of Income: Ah yes. Welcome to DeGen Island. At this point you can pay people to troll and really go all in on a “passion project”. Why? You can’t go to zero. Even if your passion project goes to zero and another couple of businesses fail… you’re still rich! Funny how the rigged game of life works.

At this point you can do whatever you like and we recommend staying anon, so you can avoid the perils of fame. You want to be rich surrounded by beautiful people and DeGen Turbo Autists. Few.

Summary

• Please read the beginning update part to be ready for the week!

• If you’re not helping people win you’re not going to make it far. Bet on big talent long term. Think about fading when they are in their 60s (*GENERAL* rule)

• Try to make your investment style line up with helping people win. Short selling is cool but has a gross feeling to it most of the time

• People are hurting after COVID. If you are well off you can “flex” by making good friends. Keep the Lambo at the dealership for a couple of years. Not a big deal

• Figure out your risk tolerance. Don’t become a degenerate trader trying to get rich off of his $25K portfolio. If you build income streams you will *easily* make $25K per month if talented/putting in 100% effort

• Have fun. No one enjoys the rich boring fat dude. No one.

• Getting rich is just a game. *Your* theme song for DeGen Island (USA).

• With money and without money. I always do what I want and my word is the law. I do not have a throne nor queen. Nor anybody that understands me but I'm still the king.