Become a Better Thinker by Doing the Opposite
Level 1 - NGMI
Welcome Avatar! If you feel like you’ve been stuck in the past, it is unlikely your fault. This isn’t due to lack of intelligence but rather, lack of good inputs. A saying in data/computing process is “garbage in garbage out”.
Instead of trying to get better results out of the same inputs we’d suggest testing the alternative. This is the same concept in advertising as well. If you run an ad, you should always see if the opposite style converts better (Hint: pain typically sells a lot better than pleasure).
Part 1: Two Examples Before Going Nuts
You will drive yourself insane if you try to test the opposite answer on every single piece of life advice. Instead, you can go ahead and write down the ones that don’t make a lot of sense from a common sense point of view. Here are two good examples.
A Calorie is a Calorie: This is how a lot of young people think. We’re not immune to this poor belief system. When you’re young, you don’t feel much when you go out to drink or when you eat a candy bar. Your body is running on hot and burns through anything that goes into the system. Easy enough to understand.
Now, does the actual phrase “a calorie is a calorie” sound logical? Doesn’t sound too logical. If you were to sit someone down and have them eat nothing but french fries and candy bars why would the result be the same as someone eating fruits, fish, meat and vegetables with the same caloric intake?
Instant logical failure.
90% of Businesses Fail: This is probably the most annoying one touted by risk-averse people. In this case we can question the sample being taken (again). Does this include random shell companies? Companies that show no profit? All those mom-pop real estate firms that use deductions? A company is started but shut down quickly for a rebrand… was that part of the sample size?
The biggest problem is the underlying samples and assumption: “You will never improve your chances of succeeding in the future”
Starting a business is no different than learning a new sport. Unless you’re a generational talent with a perfect skeletal system, nervous system and muscle development… your first attempt at a golf swing is going to be terrible.
Therefore, “90% of people will fail to swing a golf club”
You can see the fallacy pretty quickly. This isn’t a game of roulette. Business is a skill. A sport is a skill. Cooking is a skill. Writing is a skill. Drawing is a skill.
While *some* anomalies will hit a homerun on day one (Elon Musk types), it is more likely that you won’t hit it great the first time. You will hit it better the second time. You will hit it 1,000x better after a year.
Go ahead and throw this comment into the trash as the underlying assumption is wrong. Just like a “calorie is a calorie”. Business is not a spin on the roulette table. It is a skill. Can go ahead and toss this statistic into the trash bin.
Autist Note
On the paid side, we’re going to go over a new market in the physical fitness space that is probably going to balloon in the next 5 years or so. The underlying assumption is that joint/tendon pain is all “normal”. While it is true that age causes a reduction is elastin and collagen, we really doubt none of it is completely normal. It is more likely that computer screens, driving, sitting and all day to day 2025 living standards are the root cause. If your body is misaligned… the body will have joints decay.
Part 2: Onto Doing the Opposite in 2025
Opposite in Career
At this point, this meme should be enshrined in a temple somewhere in the Himalayas. A good reminder that you’re just a line item in an excel spreadsheet. A number with revenue minus your salary = value to the firm. If this is reading red, the C-suite is praying you quit or they find a way to get an automated system to replace you.
2025 Herd Mentality: Everyone is worried about AI. They are taking courses on eery single product and learning prompt engineering. Many are even praying to catch one of those juicy remote only positions. Knowing, with certainty, the C-suite can cut a remote worker due to lower morale impact at the mothership (HQ).
What is The Opposite? Build personal leverage with ownership in any small niche business. Instead of learning how to build someone else’s castle, you take all the tools and lean online sales. Tough to replace something that is in constant flux. If AI is real (it is), the only advantage is its inability to predict the impact of current events and future events. We’ve watched as AI tools simply scan CNBC/MSNBC etc. for the expert opinions on XYZ war, ABC policy change etc.
Rule: If something is historical in nature, it is dead money. AI can read history faster than anyone can read this sentence. Instead you have to predict out the trends before they happen and build on that conviction. You only get rich with conviction and being right when everyone else is wrong.
Opposite in Risk Taking and Perception
The Herd (2025): Instagram has turned the brains of the youth into mush. Apparently it is better to optimize for the gram. Car leases, credit, after pay, etc. While your digital profile is important, do you actually want to convince other people you’re rich? Or do you want to be rich. Think we all know which idea is better for you
The Opposite: If you avoid lifestyle inflation, this means you can take a ton of asymmetric risk. Asymmetric risk in the world of NPCs? Putting it all on Red 1 or dumping it into a Celeb Meme Coin. Instead, why wouldn’t you play the “90% failure” roulette wheel instead. The upside is millions the downside is $5-10K at this point. The failure rate declines from 90% to 70%… to 50%… to 30%… then you realize… it only takes *one* win. Unlike landing one big job offer, the one big sale is legitimately life changing.
Rule: When you’re making a decision ask if this actually improves your chances of making it to the next socioeconomic rung. If you buy something you can’t retain easily, it’s more likely to *prevent* you from going to the next rung. Similarly, if something fails, you have to ask if it impacted your life at all. Will a $5-10K failure on your first business change your life if you’re sitting on $200,000 in net worth? Probably not. Sure you could have compounded that $10K at a long-term CAGR of 10% per year (we know all this stuff)… it ignores the fact that you learned something. If the business succeeded the return would have been 10,000%. Risk reward and skill development.
Opposite in Health
The Herd (2025): The magic bullet. Everyone wants fast results with no effort. It’s no surprise that ozempic was another massive lifestyle hack. People are glued to screens with deteriorating stabilization muscles. Add 5 hours of sleep, fried dopamine receptors from TikTok scrolls and you’re looking at a cocktail for low energy
The Opposite: The opposite of the magic bullet is *boring consistency*. Consistent effort leads to the largest and most sustainable gains. The majority can’t stand the brick wall they hit when a plateau comes in. If you’re doing everything correct then you should be trusting the correct process. You’ll be chugging along with limited results, take a rest day or two and suddenly you’re on next rung. Throw the idea of fast results out the window. Fast results in health usually mean long-term pain. Can’t take ozempic and caffeine pills into your 80s.
Rule: Just because we can all agree that society will become more hermit like (indoors, staring at screens etc.) it does not mean that *you* should do the same thing. In fact, if everyone is indoors - that is the opportunity for you. Go sell something to them while they are at home.
Opposite in Social Life
The Herd (2025): Networking is just another way of saying that the person has nothing to offer. Yet. The goal is to network. Trying to get invited to specific social groups, gossiping and figuring out who is who in the pecking order within a room of 50 people. All nonsense.
The Opposite: Just go to the largest room in the world. The internet. You can meet someone from Kenya you could meet someone from the USA. Right here on this insane thing called the internet. The chances that your specific talents are ideal in your neighborhood? Near zero. The chances you can broadcast your unique talents to the world and find the right ecosystem? Extremely high. While life does have a bit of luck involved (hence why we didn’t say 100%), it is unlikely that a talented person can broadcast their abilities to the world and be ignored forever. In the meantime, just surround yourself with a small positive reinforcement support system.
Rule: It is better to guard your time like a hawk. If something isn’t moving you along on the right path? Throw it out. Be ruthless until you make it. At that point you will be able to do more for other people anyway.
Opposite in Investing
The Herd (2025): FOMO into whatever is on CNBC. Jim cramer smashing the buy button. Sirens in the background like selling a casino promotion. If their barber is in on it, it’s a great investment! If their friends from the Frat are in on it, they gotta get in on it too! No sample size calculations, just momentum and hype
The Opposite: Fade the emotions. If you’re feeling emotional about something, that’s likely the sign to do the exact reverse. Feeling greedy and you “shoulda coulda woulda bought more” probably best to take some off. Feeling depressed that you bought too much and it’s all over forever? Take a deep breath and click the green button. Despite all those text books in Finance 101 about cash flows, P/E ratios and profit margins, the entire market is driven by human emotion. If more people are buying it goes up. If more people are selling it goes down. Simple as that. The best part? You have your own brain and emotions to check this out yourself!
Rule: If it’s all over the news on CNBC/MSNBC it is either a dead or alive. If it’s proclaimed dead? It’s likely alive. If it’s proclaimed a new paradigm? It is likely dead. The mainstream is always a good indicator to determine what the masses own. Its their job to talk favorably or negatively about what they do or do not own. This is the only way to keep viewership up. “Aww shucks we all went down with the ship” type mentality.
The Only Edge That Scales
Doing the opposite isn’t just a gimmick from Seinfeld. It is the only way to find something with outsized returns. If everyone is laughing at you, the returns *must* be high since they are forced to change their opinions later. If everyone agrees, there is no one else left to buy.
Essentially, you should actually embrace the outcast feeling if you want to make it somewhere. It’s the only way to get good results. No one gets extreme results without doing something extreme. If people think you’re crazy, extreme and unpredictable that’s a much better recipie for success vs. curated filter friendly instagram photos and reels.
Quick Action Step
For fun, simply write down a handful of areas where you’re clearly following the herd. Ask yourself “Does this make common sense”. If you can’t come up with a clear benefit? It’s likely social programming and the loss of time. Since time is worth more than money, you know what to do. Figure out if the opposite task is the right one.
Good Luck Anon!
Disclaimer: None of this is to be deemed legal or financial advice of any kind. These are *opinions* written by an anonymous group of Ex-Wall Street Tech Bankers and software engineers who moved into affiliate marketing and e-commerce.
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