Luka and Davis Trade - Entertainment Post

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Going to write about various things related to sports and what we think the deal was really about. No this isn’t the paid post so no need to panic.

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Part 1: General Trade Overview and Diet Issue

On X we mentioned the main issue on the Luka side: Diet and Fitness. He is supposedly up to 270lbs and typically weighs 230! Likely an exaggeration but you get the idea.

Luka Drinking a Beer after winning the Conference Finals. Team yanks it.

If you have a keen eye (worked for far too long in ads), you know how to spot small changes in weight gain both up or down. Luka has been gaining weight like mad and likely contributed to his recent calf strain injury. He is also pretty injury prone by not having an incredible health regimen. This is in stark contrast to someone like Lebron who spends $1M+ (reportedly) just on maintaining his body.

Yes. We think everyone does PEDs in some form at the highest level. The NBA doesn’t even drug test during the playoffs. That creates an environment for PED abuse.

Lakers Side: On the Lakers side Luka is likely the replacement for Lebron who is now 40. That’s pretty obvious. But on the business side of the equation he could also sell a bazillion seats and a billion other monetization methods by being in LA vs. Dallas. Their bet is that they can fix his training/diet issues. This is actually a *risky* bet in terms of health. The vast majority of athletes with diet issues end up as busts

• Shawn Kemp, generational talent crushed by addiction issues

• Charles Barkley, another potential NBA champ (never won) always so out of shape his nickname was the “round mound of rebounds”

• Zion Williamson, the supposed Lebron replacement, injury prone and incredibly out of shape some 90% of the time

If you want a rare example of someone who go into shape (shockingly), Julius Randle. Difference is really that his ceiling/talent is much lower.

In short, this doesn’t look like a massive steal despite everyone saying Dallas got robbed. Lakers are making a huge bet on their organization and atmosphere getting him into gear. If he’s in shape he can certainly get a team to win a title. Although, he’ll never hit the ceiling of a Lebron/Jordan (KD/Dirk type talent).

Dallas Side: They better win this year or next. Davis is 31. He’s probably top 5 in the NBA (Jokic/Shai arguably top 2). We’re not particularly sure that “defense wins championships” in the current form of the NBA. The NBA needs to change the rules to extend the 3-pt line and make the court a bit larger to make it watchable.

Having a rim protector isn’t really as valuable when you have a three point shooting league. The only real angle here is Davis is athletic enough to defend out on the perimeter. (Assuming they can get him to stop fouling 3-point shooters - IYKYK)

Summary

Everyone is saying the Mavericks got robbed. Mainly because Luka is extremely popular to the point that his rookie cards command astronomical valuations vs. his current accomplishments. Again. He can take a team to the finals and win assuming he stays in shape, learns to defend a bit better and has enough of a supporting cast.

In short, Dallas is all in on 1-3 years of winning now. Lakers? Gotta assume they will make another trade otherwise it’s a weird set up. Perhaps trade Lebron (everyone gasps) or more likely, they trade other guys and fill in the center position. Lebron and Luka can play 1-4 no problem. They’ve got enough serviceable players at the guard position that are pretty much at the same level talent/skill wise.

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Part 2: Eye Test

For the Luka fans, he does pass the Limbal Ring test. This is something new that Portland certainly isn’t aware of based on their terrible draft decisions over the years

Example of a failed eye test, Tyreke looks 7 years older than Curry despite being in the same draft class. He is actually 1 year younger than Curry!

More Recent Example: For those that want a more recent example, we’re on record saying Scoot Henderson won’t amount to much. Said this when he was drafted as a rookie. He looks extremely old for his age.

He’s only 20 but looks 28. Probably has a few years left before slowing down and being forced onto some HGH and other stuff to extend shelf life.

Ironically the guy is already suffering from some vision problems, that’s just more of a coincidence. Bigger tell is the thick lower eyelid, sagging and eyelid hair. Limbal ring is also thin but hard to tell based on dark eye color.

Luka Looks Fine: As a rookie he looked like a high school kid. Certainly a genetic freak and insane talent, but the eye and face test doesn’t lie. Could have called him the “Baby Faced Assassin” much like Curry who aged like fine wine.

Today, he hasn’t had much impact from his bad diet choices (yet) but needs to get it in gear before around 30 otherwise it’ll catch up. Based on most recent photos you can see the slightly paler skin and he looks roughly his age (maybe +1 year from all the weight).

We’re doubtful any NBA scout is going to read this side of the web or ever read a cartoon animal, but the limbal ring just doesn’t lie. You want to draft people who look like they are kids not the classic (and wrong) belief that you draft people with “NBA ready bodies”. It just means they hit puberty too hard and too fast.

Note: if you want to see this in your own life. Look at how the kids in your high school aged. The guys who looked older than they should all peter out physically in their mid 20s. The girls who have shorter stockier curvy bodies also matured rapidly and degrade faster. This is all genetics and once you see it you can’t “unsee” it.

To avoid getting instant banned on race related comments, you can just look at their genetic chain and figure out the probabilities of a growth spurt later. If a guy is 6’0” and looks 16 years old as a senior… while his dad is 6’6” and looks 40s still, you got a winner. Fine fine, good example is probably Dalton Knecht. People are worried about his age but realistically he didn’t even grow until he was around 19/20. He still looks like a kid right now.

The dude still has acne at age 23!

Before anyone puts words in our mouths, no he won’t be the next curry or anything like that. But we’d rather bet on him vs someone like Scoot Henderson who looks like he’s 30 years old already.

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Part 3: Fixing the League in General

On an outside note, the WNBA and NBA is fixable. No we don’t think anyone listens and have no clue how politics work in the leagues.

Extend 3-pt Line: Someone suggested making the rim smaller but we realized that would actually make all shots worse. Imagine how many bricks you’d have to watch as a 7’ guy shoots free throws. Would likely lead to another hack a Shaq type era where the last 5 mins of a game lasts 40 mins.

Our simple solution is widening the court a bit, extend the line to reduce the value of a three. It still keeps the truly gifted shooters on the court (2’ extension isn’t going to stop a pure shooter like Curry, Lillard or Kennard).

The NBA has enough analytics to figure out where that line is. Once the three point shot is roughly equivalent to a two, you’ll be back to flashy cross overs, dunks and lobs at the rim. Vs. Watching some 7’ guy pull up from three during a fast break.

Lower Rim in WNBA: Same concept. a 10’ rim doesn’t make sense at the women’s level. Sorry but women are historically much shorter than men. The number of women with a 40” vertical is near zero. They have enough analytics to figure out what the right height is.

This would *help* ratings and not make women look inferior. It just doesn’t make sense to expect them to jump an extra 6-12” into the air vs. the average height of a WNBA player. WNBA average height is 6’ in the NBA it is 6’7” not to mention the lower jumping ability. (go look up high jump records if you like - fine fine - its 6’10.5” for women and 8’0.46” in for men). Over a foot difference! Lower the rim!

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End of rant, if you have random sports/NBA comments we’ll open it for this post all other comments will be deleted since our Q&A is set for later tonight.

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Disclaimer: None of this is to be deemed legal or financial advice of any kind. These are *opinions* written by an anonymous group of Ex-Wall Street Tech Bankers and software engineers who moved into affiliate marketing and e-commerce.

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