No One is Coming to Save You – Not Your Politicians, Not Your Boss
Level 1 - NGMI
Welcome Avatar! If the past couple of months hasn’t lead you to the post title conclusion we’re not sure what to say. We’ll go over some of the recent Trump moves and our cartoon opinion on it. That said, as you can see, no matter who is in office it doesn’t change the long-term future: AI, automation, global competition etc.
Part 1: Recent Trump Moves and Impacts
All of Q1 has been excruciatingly volatile. If you were smart and ordered inventory in advance (everyone here should), then you’re in a great position for now. It’s a good time to focus on all your active income because we don’t see any of the recent noise changing in a week. At minimum, probably a full quarter of this.
Tariffs: The stock market (and crypto market) does not like uncertainty. While people are already blaming Trump for the downturn in the market, the reality is *any* uncertainty typically leads to a sell off. The reasoning is pretty simple, most people just passively buy index funds, bonds, etc. If there is a lot of commotion about the impact of *any* new policy that usually leads to a lot of ugly red days and heavy trading volume on all assets.
Based on what we’ve seen it looks like Trump is using heavy Tariffs to get his way. We do think it works! However, these things do not change on a dime.
In general it looks as follows:
Over the top heavy tariffs and America first policies
His plan is to push these hard to gain negotiating power (anchoring at high numbers)
After this the companies in Canada/Mexico etc. are forced to bring production to the USA or they are forced to bend the knee to a policy that he wants long term
We have no idea what the long-term Tariff policy is. We’re not that high up and frankly don’t want to be since it gets increasingly vicious at that level of power.
An example is likely Ukraine. Having the bad meeting in the Oval office is an attempt to get mineral rights and other paybacks for all the resources sent out there. That’s out general jist of it. “We sent you X billions in equipment, need to have a clear way of recouping those massive costs”
On the Tariff side (again a guess), he’s likely trying to get them to bend the knee at a lower number and *incentivize* Canada to buy more US products. That’s our current read. If bringing production to the USA is too hard for Canada/Mexico/any other tariff rule, he’ll probably try to get them to sign an agreement to buy certain amounts of American made products.
The TL;DR: While it may seem like the world is ending due to all the volatility, having huge Tariffs is unlikely going to stay forever. It makes the president of both Canada and Mexico look terrible if their economy goes into disarray.
Investment Angle: Considering how much attention he brought to TSMC’s investment in manufacturing, that’s a secondary answer to his end game. (source)
Purchase Agreements: Force Mexico/Canada/Other countries to buy in bulk American products
Autist Note: There are probably other angles (ala mineral agreement Ukraine issue) but right now those seem like the two easiest solutions that would be a win for his policies.
Dystopian Devils Advocate Take
We’re naturally optimistic about the USA coming out ahead in any sort of financial/economic warfare. That said, there is a dystopian version where this drags on for years. In that case you already know what we think: all this leads to more robots/automation.
Cost of production in the USA is just not going to work when compared to pennies on the dollar wages in places like SE Asia and South of the Border.
Part 2: Government Goals Similar to an Employer
A running joke is that Nancy Pelosi is the greatest stock picker in the history of stocks. Despite a ~$225,000 salary she has amassed a fortune of $250,000,000+
Before people say “we’ll get her”, the real answer is… no we won’t. Politicians this high up have too much information that the public is not privy to. She likely has access to information that would look bad for practically everyone in the upper echelons of the government.
Believing that someone else will fix your problems is a fairy tale (believing in Santa Claus has better odds). The reality is that every single person this high up is in close contact with both side of the left and the right. Otherwise, the USA wouldn’t be able to remain as a global SuperPower.
Politicians Exist to Control, Not Help - Just Like an Employer
Election cycles naturally come with the same talking points: taxes, protect your rights, fix the economy, return to the past, environmentalism and the boogey man of the debt ceiling/debt issue (who exactly would force the USA to pay if we defaulted on them anyway? The USD is used to sanction governments world wide!)
Funny that every 4 years it’s the same talking points!!!
It ends up being a similar cycle of working harder for the powers that be (a 500,000th iteration that you want to be running a biz to avoid this issue)
No one in power is incentivized to solve problems. The problems give them a campaign to run on.
Politicians don’t want you to be independent. They want you to be controllable (hence why the military has a natural rank pecking order).
The government and your boss, wants you in grind mode, but never enough to become a free spirit/free thinker.
Laws, taxes and regulation are related to control. You don’t vote your way to freedom.
You create the exit yourself.
Your Boss Will Replace You Tomorrow Just Like a Politician
Loyalty is a one-way street in corporate America and as many Government Employees are finding out… In America in general.
In the corporate world, you put in extra hours but if the company needs to restructure, you’re gone and forgotten within weeks.
The company survives, the execs cash their bonuses and you’re out scrambling.
The lesson? You are an expendable line item. A cog in a wheel. The second you forget that, you lose. The only way to win is to stop thinking like an employee and start thinking like an owner. Build skills, leverage, and multiple income streams so you’re treading water if you get hit vs. scrambling to make it on a month to month basis.
Your employer isn’t your family. The government isn’t family. Your boss isn’t your friend. You are on your own.
What Do You Do?
Copy What Works: “Success leaves clues” - If you’re remotely interested in sleuthing the jungle you’ll find people making $1K, $10K, $100K+ month. Some are making much more than that. Their clues are all posted and the cream consistently rises to the top (check out NOBS, check out Ramp Health, check out basic automated business ideas, look into land development with BowTiedBroke, find the clues and copy).
Hey remember the Los Angeles fires? How quickly did that pass. Pretty sure there are opportunities now that people forgot.
Encourage Yourself: In your personal life, it is unlikely that anyone will encourage you or tell you to go for it. The same old “how is that little thing you told me about”. If you want freedom in your life, responsibility is the price of admission.
In fact, you’re better off telling no one. You’ll just get snide comments and laughter when you leave the room
Only Build Equity: After you’re on your way out of “yes ma’am” “anything you say sir!” you’ll learn that the only way to get ahead is with equity. Could be stocks, crypto, real estate, etc. Doesn’t matter. You need to build up ownership in everything to let all the constant money printing benefit you vs. swimming upstream
Work During Distraction Periods: Chaos is another word for opportunity. Remember the 2008 RE crisis? Made a boatload of millionaires who saw the carnage as opportunity. Today is no different. When the dust settles this year, there will be numerous beaten down businesses that are in need of you to fix. Instead of framing the issues that arise as a problem for others to solve, it is an opportunity for you to get rich.
Build or Die: Unless you’re Nancy Pelosi, it’s unlikely you can sit back and invest based on huge cultivated “relationships”. You have to choose a niche to build in. Get started. Instead of juggling 100 ideas choose one start building and you’ll learn more from that vs any text book or PHD seminar
This Too Will Pass
As cheesy as it sounds, it’s true. After all the dust settles it’ll be forgotten by the end of the year. The largest fire in the history of Southern California is nothing but a footnote today. Instead of seeing it as “so sad oh well” all the problems that come out are your business opportunities. Tariffs, trade wars etc. eventually hit equilibrium. However. The winners become imbalanced and its your job to find it.
Your boss and your local Congressman are certainly not going to hand it to you. Can bet the house on that one.
Disclaimer: None of this is to be deemed legal or financial advice of any kind. These are *opinions* written by an anonymous group of Ex-Wall Street Tech Bankers and software engineers who moved into affiliate marketing and e-commerce.
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