31 Comments

I've written about this on my Substack that I'm actually quite concerned that aging childless women is going to lead to some kind of political radicalization. If we think "blue" US areas are bad now, I could see it getting worse before it gets better.

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Friend of mine opened up a video game bar years ago. Remember this quote for long degeneracy gaming:

"My focus within the esports industry is to create businesses and opportunities to help catch those who are ready to retire from the competitive scene and solidify the esports ecosystem beyond the high and fast “Invest, Flip, and Ghost” method."

Max loneliness because competitive scene is usually 2-3 year career pro gamer, burnout, no skills for another job/career & try coaching (most coaches are terrible in North America). Remember pro gamers travel sometimes 100+ days of the year with insane uptime for world championship events (you won't be losing money when you own the publisher, developer & event/tournament organizer companies)

Invest, flip & ghost method works extremely well for individual titles:

The Finals (new esport, buy pro gamer comtracts while they're cheap)

GTA (role playing communities worth multi-millions)

Riot Games MMO (create guides 2-3 months before launch on YouTube etc.)

Do this on a long enough time frame and you'll have enough resources (money included) to start your own AAA gaming studio or buy one (10,000+ layoffs in gaming recently). Enough unemployed people for anyone who wants to acquihire, dominate & grow/scale long degeneracy in gaming:

http://videogamelayoffs.com/

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`If you’re interested in a career in politics (some of you are!) just vocalize extreme takes. The biggest opportunity here is unsurprisingly for attractive women. Just copy paste the top male talking points and re-word them`

Not to take anything away from her, but Eva Vlaar (https://twitter.com/EvaVlaar) is a good example of what this can look like. Big niche.

In general spot on analysis, see it anecdotally as well. People looking for a quick fix for their lack of prospects.

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When it comes to populism, one thing I have noticed is that the liberal people I know are not having any kids or very few if they do (many in thirties matching the description here). On the other side, religious conservatives are having MANY kids at a younger age (4+ per family). America could realize a shift similar to what Israel is currently seeing where conservatives are the only people having kids and eventually turn the political landscape.

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Populism is here via America First. Participatory populism and economic nationalism. It’s why the uniparty hates MAGA. As Bannon says, if you’re under 40, you’re just a Russian serf.

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Another good area (high barrier to entry though) are cosmetic procedures that don’t require a doctor, nurses instead, injectables and fillers.

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Dec 13, 2023·edited Dec 13, 2023

Affiliate/Paid traffic for limb lengthening surgery. Part of the looksmaxxing ish for men.

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May be related, may not be... but I see levels of government "struggling due to lack of workers". A friend in a "prestigious" gov't accounting job empties her own garbage cans, there's rodent control canisters on the floor, and she's expected to use her own salary to buy food & supplies to furnish office events. More cuts coming. But they are staffing more "DEI" type jobs that don't require hard skills. Competent ppl aren't applying to the hard skills public service jobs, so their quality will drop further.

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Do you think there's any chance this could lead to a civil war in our lifetimes?

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Just a side thought, not really related to investing...

The seemingly "new" phenomenon of populism seems a little strange to me. How new is it really? Seems to me that it's been the way politics have operated for quite some time. It's been "vote for us, we promise to give you some new free government handout." Conservatives have been pushing back against this tendency for years: remember the mantra that a government big enough to give you everything you want is also large enough to take away everything you have.

The shift is now the democrats seems to have moved away from things people actually want - to instead focus on DEI, open borders, bad economic policy to pursue some "cause", terrible foreign policy. Things that people don't like. Yeah, there's still the "we'll pay for your student loans" giveaway scam, but the working class don't like it, people who have already paid off their own loans don't like it - so it's only popular for a certain demographic. So, anyway, it's kinda funny that all of a sudden now that the Democratic party has shifted away from populism, is the word even being floated out there so ubiquitously. And it's being done so now only in a pejorative sense. Now, Trump is a populist. And it's such a bad thing, right? It's so terrible that politics have stopped serving the common man and they aren't getting anything that they really care about. It's not surprising that this comes at a time in America's history where the left holds the levers of power of most of big tech and other big business, big education, big pharma, federal agencies, big media, hollywood, etc. It would seem only natural that the left would abandon the little guy and the right wing would find a vacuum to be filled through "populism".

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"the rich would not be on board with cash handouts since this would be blown instantly", I'm not so sure about this, seems like a lot of wealthy people transpose their mentality onto others: "I would be responsible with a regular cash injection from the government, therefore it makes sense to give cash directly." Maybe the ones that came up from poverty see it differently, but most people born comfortably middle class or above seem to have no concept of a left bell-curve mentality.

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What does this mean for those in their twenties- anything they should do to adjust/exploit this?

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How you think these trends will spiral out internationally?

For eg. Canada will prob follow next.

People will try to move to better jurisdictions, and political players will try to slow down the trend through policies in different countries. But will they succeed or internet will reign?

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Directionally correct.

Also opportunity at other end for those that continue to have kids (shrinking group but have $$).

The value of “islands” will continue to go up (eg Balboa on West and John’s Island in SC). Inland golf course type neighborhoods / country clubs that add schools and medical care will create significant value.

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