It would be interesting to hear more about the 5 business failures you had: what you learned, how you stumbled forward and improved, timeframe, etc. Maybe a future post?
Depends most have clawbacks if you're VP or above in banking. This means you would only leave for a "cash out" of your stock.
IE. go from a place like DB to Moelis would be great since you trade worthless stock (likely dead in the water) for cash on day one. If you get cut and clawed back on a bonus doesn't matter since you cashed out your vest.
Might need to factor in the govt fiscal calendar; which typically starts Oct 1, so Q1 would be in a few days.
Looks like a quick Google search of "govt budget for 23" shows govt spending plans.
With budgets already set, making the people connections if not already establish and search / apply for / bid on multi-year contracts would help weather the storm.
You mentioned that these Industries would be hit the hardest 1) Money/Fund raising - mortgage brokers, Equity Capital Markets, Seed/Series A/Series B. I was wondering what your opinion on lending markets would be? Such as lending to small-mid sized business. Just received offer for sales position at such a firm and trying to decide to hold on for a SaaS role or just accept the opportunity if downturn is impending.
BTB: in the cases of people losing their job and not being able to afford their mortgage and would need to foreclose, why wouldn’t they just rent out the property and live somewhere cheaper? Genuinely curious, haven’t seen a recession before
Understand if you're 30-50 yo range and set to live in the same area 10+ years you are stacking cash to buy a home if you don't already own one. What if you are <30 yo and don't own a home? With a likely massive reset in asset prices is it wise to get on the property ladder in next 6-12 months? Is a syndicate purchase wise to mitigate some risk?
"Unless you are in one of the following: 1) restructuring, 2) emergency health care or 3) basic necessities like food/water… you should assume 2022 and 2023 will be *down* versus 2021."
Would you put waste management/disposal in category no. 3 (basic necessity)?
Great read and insightful. What would you recommend for someone who has a home and has less than 200 k left to pay and currently is on variable rate but needs to refinance next year. Also, do not want to live in same home looking to upgrade. Should refinance now or wait it out and buy once everything settles ? Thanks in advance.
It would be interesting to hear more about the 5 business failures you had: what you learned, how you stumbled forward and improved, timeframe, etc. Maybe a future post?
Pretty much just read all of bulls stuffs: books, substack, twitter....
Unbelievable value in this post. Not even joking.
great read as always
great read, ty BTB
Phenomenal and actionable advice as always. Thank you.
"Do not switch to a new job/career without a written guarantee for income."
How are these typically structured? For example, if we sack you within a year, we pay you a full year salary less what you have received?
Thanks
Depends most have clawbacks if you're VP or above in banking. This means you would only leave for a "cash out" of your stock.
IE. go from a place like DB to Moelis would be great since you trade worthless stock (likely dead in the water) for cash on day one. If you get cut and clawed back on a bonus doesn't matter since you cashed out your vest.
As usual depends so read the fine print.
Thanks Bull!
What’s your opinion on outlook for businesses selling primarily to Government/State/County in Q4-Q1
Govt always best customer because both unintelligent and flush with money (can print whatever they like). Usually stable.
Might need to factor in the govt fiscal calendar; which typically starts Oct 1, so Q1 would be in a few days.
Looks like a quick Google search of "govt budget for 23" shows govt spending plans.
With budgets already set, making the people connections if not already establish and search / apply for / bid on multi-year contracts would help weather the storm.
Link for contract opportunities:
https://sam.gov/content/opportunities
You mentioned that these Industries would be hit the hardest 1) Money/Fund raising - mortgage brokers, Equity Capital Markets, Seed/Series A/Series B. I was wondering what your opinion on lending markets would be? Such as lending to small-mid sized business. Just received offer for sales position at such a firm and trying to decide to hold on for a SaaS role or just accept the opportunity if downturn is impending.
Thanks!
Great stuff thanks as always
What do you think on Ken Fisher‘s analysis that we might be close to a bottom for stocks: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/09/13/if_you_think_inflation_has_crested_position_yourself_for_a_rally_now_853099.html
BTB: in the cases of people losing their job and not being able to afford their mortgage and would need to foreclose, why wouldn’t they just rent out the property and live somewhere cheaper? Genuinely curious, haven’t seen a recession before
Rental prices also go down because peopel can't afford to pay it so they live with more family members/friends. Shack up
Saying people will just rent more if they can't buy is pure cope clown car logic
Hi Bull/BTB community,
Understand if you're 30-50 yo range and set to live in the same area 10+ years you are stacking cash to buy a home if you don't already own one. What if you are <30 yo and don't own a home? With a likely massive reset in asset prices is it wise to get on the property ladder in next 6-12 months? Is a syndicate purchase wise to mitigate some risk?
Note: non-USA
Same strategy we're no where near bottom so just wait. Build income save for now.
"Unless you are in one of the following: 1) restructuring, 2) emergency health care or 3) basic necessities like food/water… you should assume 2022 and 2023 will be *down* versus 2021."
Would you put waste management/disposal in category no. 3 (basic necessity)?
Yeah probably flattish
Great read and insightful. What would you recommend for someone who has a home and has less than 200 k left to pay and currently is on variable rate but needs to refinance next year. Also, do not want to live in same home looking to upgrade. Should refinance now or wait it out and buy once everything settles ? Thanks in advance.
Not enough info come back with clearer question end of month for standard Q&A