I don't think most people view the election through this lens. It's far too rational. Most people tend to vote on social issues because those are emotional points they can understand.
Women seem to vote based on pro-abortion. Minorities vote on who they think serves their race first and foremost. Gays vote for the pro-LGBT candidate. That's over half the country right there. This is why they malign conservatives as “racists, sexist, bigots” when it’s not true at all.
It only seems that straight white guys vote based on economy and what's best for the country as a whole.
Historically the entire election is won based on bull/bear market. This election the only real issue that people care about is cost of living. No way people are surviving when McDonalds costs $40-50 for 4 people
The USA is a very different country today than it was even 10 years ago. You can see the data from the past election in 2016 and 2020. It is very evident that demographics matter more than actual policy issues. If you look at a map where it's only women voting, or only minorities voting... nearly the entire map is blue. If only whites vote, nearly the entire map is red.
Both sides are guilty of this, though. How many new right wing politicians offer no substance and just show you their pick up truck guns and some weight lifting? Then it turns into a tug of war over things like abortion LGBT, etc because it’s a distraction from addressing real issues.
Economy is still most important, though. I believe that’s what put Obama over the hump when McCain didn’t have a confident answer to how he’d deal with the economy
Singapore also has taxes via something called ABSD (Additional Buyer Stamp Duty) for foreigners. 60% for foreign citizens and 30% for Permanent Residents.
P.S. Americans are exempt from ABSD and pay the same rate as Singapore Citizens for their first property (due to American Singapore Free Trade Agreement signed by George Bush Jr.)
If you removed depreciation/deductions from rental properties, wouldn’t that just cause rents to increase? Maybe the solution would be to ban ownership of more than X number of rental spaces by affiliated owners, which would stop the Blackrock problem but allow small landlords to exist.
Don't think so because there is a limit to how much people can pay. Right now the major scam is having all these fake expenses to make it look like you're losing money when you're not
Dang Bull why you throwing rental properties under the bus like that. It's one of the best ways for non tech or skilled people to actually build wealth over the long term. However I could see a tax on certain rental properties (luxury, Airbnb, cottage etc.) The average mom and pop rental investor isn't rich and they are typically renting to long term tenants anyways. You might cashflow on some units but most are just negative at least in my part of the world.
This is a great call. In a lot of holiday areas and capital cities in my country (Australia), people who want to rent long term have simply been priced out due to lack of availability & because providing short term accomodation is far more lucrative for property owners. There's also a lot of those "Airbnb arbitrage" businesses which basically rent a normal property taking it off the rental market so they can sublease for short stays at a much higher price. Having a higher tax on short stay accomodation income compared to long term rental income might mitigate this issue.
Taxing "luxury" goods (which I support) might work if our debt was in the ~$5 trillion range, but US debt is ~$35 trillion w/ ~$1 trillion added every ~100 days.
No one who is good at math thinks our national debt crisis can be solved through normal business. We won't solve it by cutting expenses, shrinking government the way Argentina is, inflation, or by growing GDP.
more likely in the future, a digital currency will be backed by ownership shares in industrial robots. Nothing else will have economic value except land. National debt will be paid off by converting dollars to microshares in robots.
Excellent post as usual but with one caveat: all you White and Asian guys had better haul your and your friends' asses to the polls as you, my friends, are persona non grata in this carcass of a country. Not sure how anyone with a brain does not see the dangerous trajectory we are on.
The U-shaped fertility rate vs income graph is one of the biggest problems IMO - I would support larger deductions / dropping tax rates based on # of children... and earlier social security retirement age based on # of children (since the children are the ones paying for it anyways).
The issue of migration must be brought to the forefront. Europe and America are changing at breathtaking speed as a result. Identity issues are becoming ever more pressing. What good is an economy if you no longer recognize your neighborhood because of demographic changes and it is no longer your America? Not to mention the billions and billions in costs for the illegals. The average American is being bled dry financially and in terms of identity. Whoever stops this will win the election.
You’ve talked about UBI in the past. Thoughts on UBI gaining traction as a more palatable way to address affordability (with no thought for second and third order consequences), further fueled by AI job losses?
Elections are just a way to keep 50% of the peasants sedated for a few years. And then flip flop to the other 50%.
They main thing they are trying to avoid is pissing off 80-100% of the peasants.
That is when real problems start.
Agree
I don't think most people view the election through this lens. It's far too rational. Most people tend to vote on social issues because those are emotional points they can understand.
Women seem to vote based on pro-abortion. Minorities vote on who they think serves their race first and foremost. Gays vote for the pro-LGBT candidate. That's over half the country right there. This is why they malign conservatives as “racists, sexist, bigots” when it’s not true at all.
It only seems that straight white guys vote based on economy and what's best for the country as a whole.
Historically the entire election is won based on bull/bear market. This election the only real issue that people care about is cost of living. No way people are surviving when McDonalds costs $40-50 for 4 people
The USA is a very different country today than it was even 10 years ago. You can see the data from the past election in 2016 and 2020. It is very evident that demographics matter more than actual policy issues. If you look at a map where it's only women voting, or only minorities voting... nearly the entire map is blue. If only whites vote, nearly the entire map is red.
https://images.app.goo.gl/WvnBSYeZk9rqYzYn9
Crazy
Both sides are guilty of this, though. How many new right wing politicians offer no substance and just show you their pick up truck guns and some weight lifting? Then it turns into a tug of war over things like abortion LGBT, etc because it’s a distraction from addressing real issues.
Economy is still most important, though. I believe that’s what put Obama over the hump when McCain didn’t have a confident answer to how he’d deal with the economy
Yeah its why we don't believe presidents matter
😂
In Canada, cap rates on rentals is so low and house price appreciation is so high that 3/4 RE firms are willing to be cash flow negative.
Canada is full clown world it seems
lol
Singapore also has taxes via something called ABSD (Additional Buyer Stamp Duty) for foreigners. 60% for foreign citizens and 30% for Permanent Residents.
P.S. Americans are exempt from ABSD and pay the same rate as Singapore Citizens for their first property (due to American Singapore Free Trade Agreement signed by George Bush Jr.)
IYKYK
If you removed depreciation/deductions from rental properties, wouldn’t that just cause rents to increase? Maybe the solution would be to ban ownership of more than X number of rental spaces by affiliated owners, which would stop the Blackrock problem but allow small landlords to exist.
Don't think so because there is a limit to how much people can pay. Right now the major scam is having all these fake expenses to make it look like you're losing money when you're not
Dang Bull why you throwing rental properties under the bus like that. It's one of the best ways for non tech or skilled people to actually build wealth over the long term. However I could see a tax on certain rental properties (luxury, Airbnb, cottage etc.) The average mom and pop rental investor isn't rich and they are typically renting to long term tenants anyways. You might cashflow on some units but most are just negative at least in my part of the world.
This is a great call. In a lot of holiday areas and capital cities in my country (Australia), people who want to rent long term have simply been priced out due to lack of availability & because providing short term accomodation is far more lucrative for property owners. There's also a lot of those "Airbnb arbitrage" businesses which basically rent a normal property taking it off the rental market so they can sublease for short stays at a much higher price. Having a higher tax on short stay accomodation income compared to long term rental income might mitigate this issue.
Yes agree, STR/Airbnb model is more like a business with constant turnaround and up keep required so should be paying more taxes.
Taxing "luxury" goods (which I support) might work if our debt was in the ~$5 trillion range, but US debt is ~$35 trillion w/ ~$1 trillion added every ~100 days.
No one who is good at math thinks our national debt crisis can be solved through normal business. We won't solve it by cutting expenses, shrinking government the way Argentina is, inflation, or by growing GDP.
more likely in the future, a digital currency will be backed by ownership shares in industrial robots. Nothing else will have economic value except land. National debt will be paid off by converting dollars to microshares in robots.
Problem is it’s already public consensus that Trump is guaranteed to win. Which tells me there is no way they will let it happen.
That doesn't really apply here, its all going to be economic driven
And lastly what about actual voter fraud? He could win and still lose (like last time)
They can’t drum up another global pandemic/catastrophe/war right before the election? Or what about his indictment?
Excellent post as usual but with one caveat: all you White and Asian guys had better haul your and your friends' asses to the polls as you, my friends, are persona non grata in this carcass of a country. Not sure how anyone with a brain does not see the dangerous trajectory we are on.
The U-shaped fertility rate vs income graph is one of the biggest problems IMO - I would support larger deductions / dropping tax rates based on # of children... and earlier social security retirement age based on # of children (since the children are the ones paying for it anyways).
The issue of migration must be brought to the forefront. Europe and America are changing at breathtaking speed as a result. Identity issues are becoming ever more pressing. What good is an economy if you no longer recognize your neighborhood because of demographic changes and it is no longer your America? Not to mention the billions and billions in costs for the illegals. The average American is being bled dry financially and in terms of identity. Whoever stops this will win the election.
Tax FMV of total compensation.
You’ve talked about UBI in the past. Thoughts on UBI gaining traction as a more palatable way to address affordability (with no thought for second and third order consequences), further fueled by AI job losses?
Still think UBL is better concept, basic living, meaning give them food and water not money they will spend on drugs and alcohol
I think Sweden has similar concept,provide you everything to live plus a small allowance
Second (non primary residence) and every other RE tax at 50% rate on value increase,2% yearly.Massive sell of,RE comes back
Yeah easily