21 Comments

Wow I didn't know all these firms could create paper commodities, that's crazy

Also, the part that BTC demand wasn't correctly reflected in the price due to paper is a very clever insight nice

Expand full comment

Might be a noob question but are stocks also “paper” (ie. you don’t own any actual company shares, just the promise that you have them)?

And if so, any way to make sure you own them as well?

Expand full comment

You own a sliver of the company, but in the event of bankruptcy you're last to receive any distribution since equity is paid out last in the capital structure. Good to keep an eye on authorized shares vs. outstanding shares. A company can issue more shares under certain circumstances and dilute your ownership stake - similar to MC and FDV in crypto

Your brokerage you purchase the stock through owns the security in book-entry form - it keeps a record you own the stock (rather than a certificate delivered to you).

Expand full comment
author

Yes if the brokerage goes under you still get your shares.

Expand full comment

Thanks both. I just recently had an incident with my brokerage where I was *forced* to sell some of my foreign investments because the intermediary that the brokerage was using to settle the transactions deemed those specific investments risky (by their own definition), and discontinued the “paper” instrument they were issuing. Hence, the brokerage asked me to sell the “paper” before they were ultimately removed from the intermediary’s system.

The whole thing made me think if I own any stocks at all or just “paper” investments mirroring the actual stocks - in which case I own nothing as they hold the rights to discontinue the “paper” as they see fit.

Expand full comment
Nov 15, 2022Liked by BowTied Bull

The difference here is govt backstop/regulations.

All the shares Schwab/fidelity etc show on screen when you log in are owned by them FOR you unless you jump through the hoops to actually get them custodied in your name.

This is almost never done bc the downside of slower trading speed etc is more than the upside of “protection” bc you’re protected either way.

Full explainer at link below, TLDR is it doesn’t matter

https://www.finra.org/investors/insights/its-your-stock-just-not-your-name-explaining-street-names

Expand full comment

You're completely right about the pseudoscience of economics.

I was originally an econ major, and halfway through realized it was all bs as well.

Switched to Computer Science and never looked back:)

Expand full comment

domestic and asian brand car dealer here - the supply / demand relationship has been fascinating to watch in real time these past 2 years. it "feels" like the supply of cars is going up, but i think that is mostly from demand destruction. the transporters are dropping off loads of cars now that aren't pre sold. 2-3 months ago they were still all pre sold. cars at auction are going no sale and getting re listed bc the demand is not there. at 7%, people are holding off on purchasing. stuff under $20k is less affected as are people with subprime credit (rates don't matter, payment does). It will be interesting in the next 6 months to see cars stack up on lots again. you have been on it for months now!

Expand full comment
author

Yeah you can get deals at the high-end but , the low end is always going to have better price stability since affordable. People who could afford a low-end luxury car are now forced into the cheap/reliable camp.

Expand full comment

Does anyone have any legal advice on what to do with funds held on Voyager? Originally FTX US was going to buy them out (lol). Yes I was stupid for holding funds on Voyager, but the 4% yields didn't seem too egregious. They also said they were FDIC insured but apparently that didn't apply to the crypto.

Expand full comment
author

No clue you have to talk to a legal person in your jurisdiction

Expand full comment
founding

So was it SBF or 3 Arrow who broke LUNA?

Expand full comment
author

No clue they are just going to blame each other. This will give them headroom to try and avoid going to prison for rehypothecation

Expand full comment
founding

Do we agree though that “paper assets” will always be there on the market, with always as much buyers (brings back to your first point, rational vs irrational)?

Next cycle should see no difference vs price on that point, but at least hope more bowtieds will use their own wallet.

Simple post, great infos again Bull. Cheers!

Expand full comment

Maybe I misunderstood, but if FTX was selling "fake BTC", how could users withdraw it to cold storage on the BTC blockchain?

Or did they simply buy spot BTC to fulfill orders with zero reserves?

Expand full comment
author

At some point they were insolvent. No one knows the exact date but at some point all the "BTC" people held was fake

Also given the amount of losses it tells you MASSIVE amounts just left it on exchange not realizing there was no BTC there at all

1.2M users how many of those owned at least 0.1 BTC?

Expand full comment
author

Also yes for the withdrawls they could swap scam coin to BTC and have that paid out

You could use another exchange or even use a Dex. Say swap ETH for wrapped BTC then swap that to BTC and send that to the customer

In the end the hole just grew and grew from $1B to $6B to $10B and suddenly you can't pay out when everyone wants out

Expand full comment

So has the price of BTC been artificially suppressed? Could that change now that there are fewer BTC to bid on with the fake ones gone?

Expand full comment
author
Nov 15, 2022·edited Nov 15, 2022Author

During the *run up* we know the price was suppressed since fake BTC was being sold that didn't exist. No one knows the magnitude

*Right now* we already covered what we think for now see the prior post.

Expand full comment

Yes. The exact same thing that happens with gold and future markets (paper gold 250x more than physical gold). Inflated illusory supply = price manipulation.

Expand full comment
Comment removed
Expand full comment
author

Yeah you should withdraw all of it and just take control of your funds. Ask them if they even outperformed holding spot BTC / Spot eth (probably didn't after management fees + performance fees)

Expand full comment