Can comment on the UPS situation, it’s a vital aspect to my job for receiving product I sell. If the situation isn’t resolved by 11:59 pm 7/31 it’s going to get ugly.
Spoke to someone at UPS about it last week and they were optimistic for a solution to be reached this week.
I think the govt could balance the budget if they just got people healthy. Just imagine if they were to ban seed oils, HFCS, and processed carbs while at the same time promoting healthy food and exercise.
It would lower obesity and chronic disease thus reducing spending on Medicare. This would also improve GDP as healthier people are more productive. And would go a long way towards easing the social tensions and insanity in our society.
You really have to wonder why they don’t do this? Why do they want us all fat, sick and miserable? Who does it benefit in the long run?
--"As you can see in the prior chart, debt to GDP at the time was 0%." Think you're looking at the wrong scale. Debt to GDP averaged c.45% in the 1980s (right hand scale). Anyway, still much lower than now so the point is valid that higher rates were less of an issue
--"Having *small* inflation is generally healthy. At small amounts you encourage spending and economic growth/innovation since people won’t stuff money under a mattress knowing prices will be lower in 2-3 years." A top Keynesian talking point but how true is it? Quite a few goods fall in price every year (TVs, computers etc) but doesn't stop people buying a ton of them. If we ever move to a btc/similar reserve system deflation will have to be the norm over time due to fixed supply. Despite the huge boom in global trade and wealth in the 19th Century, there was 100 years of deflation up to 1914 (hint: gold standard / fixed supply)
--Re treasuries if we are looking at a future of low rates and higher inflation (which I agree with), then it probably makes sense to buy 10-30 yr now and sell as soon as rates fall meaningfully (and price rises). Even if rich, holding them long term for the "risk free yield" is unlikely to be a great strategy as the 5% yield will be crushed by the high inflation over time
For fellow Amazon sellers, UPS is a shipping partner for both merchant fulfilled shipments and inbound shipments to FBA fulfillment centers. Amazon thus far hasn’t said a word with respect to contingency plans if the strike goes through. Perhaps a sign they don’t think it’s likely.
Either way, FBM sellers can simply shift to USPS or Fedex postage.
For FBA inbound shipments, this hurts sellers that ship small parcels in more than those that ship in freight (pallets/truckloads).
Small Parcel Delivery Shipments - UPS is the main shipping partner for small parcel delivery and provides steep discounts. Would advise those sellers to start providing their own shipping (buy through your FedEx/USPS accounts or use PirateShip). Will cost more inbound but lowers risk you have inventory stuck in transit when strike happens (unclear if they would finish our in transit shipments or not but why risk it?).
Freight shipments - just use any of other Amazon’s other freight suppliers and reject the shipping plan if they try to force you to use UPS. Or provide your own.
Someone in Maui’s discord said same thing as others above. Spoke to a UPS guy that said they doesn’t expect strike cause they got pretty much everything (comment as of July 22)
Something you always emphasize is testing demand before ordering inventory-
How much time should be committed to demand testing if you know the product sells very well for a similar but larger brand? In this case would working on funnel/marketing be more important?
I've switched over to the lifetime subscription but I do not see * “don’t renew” at the end * part. Do you mean we cancel subscription after we subscribe? Thanks for clarifying.
Stalking TLT for all the reasons laid out in this article. Don’t want to own it long term (like equities or BTC/ETH) otherwise would just buy the actual bond, but want to capture the up move in long duration when it happens at some point. SURPRISE spike in unemployment would probably be the catalyst. The chart has really obvious technicals too so R/R seems pretty amazing.
Also... discounted lifetime membership for clown mask holders?
Please could you offer advice on the best way to move to the US from the UK.
With the state of the UK at the moment it seems like a terrible place to grow your wealth.
I’m currently a student of a Construction related degree about to go into final year or have an optional year of working in industry. I’m happy to switch sectors if it helps to gain a move to the states.
> If you can lock in enough to cover basic costs, go ahead and buy that 10-30 year.
Would you do that as a zero coupon ladder? Say 200k face value per year up to the 20 year point? Or am I overthinking it and just do like a T-bond with interest payments equaling 200k/y and principal back at the end. Obviously the former much less capital outlay than the latter. Just thinking through duration risk and opportunity costs.
You're over thinking it, staggering out 10bps not worth the time unless huge. Just look at tax free options like Munis on the front end and T-bills on the long-tail should net you a good tax set up
Seeing a lot of news about labour disruptions and strikes (not just in the USA) - would it be correct to assume this is the start (or already in) a wage-price spiral? Navarro thinks it may be so:
Real wages down -> wage increases sought by workers -> prices of goods and services go up -> inflation up -> Powell forced to hike rates or keep high
there's just one problem. who's going to pay the increased wages? businesses will be cutting jobs as growth slows. growth is slowing globally after the synchronisation that occurred during covid. producers and services are seeing less demand but they're hanging on to their employees while hoping for things to pick up. but we see y/y % change in demand going down in the data. this which leads to lower prices of goods and services, inflation down and rates down. not my opinion but jeff snyders. the data checks out though
Signed up for the lifetime offer as soon as I saw it. No brainer! How do I know if I managed to be in the first 25? Really struggling with the wifi set up still and looking forward to the book!
Think of government spending like a credit cards.
Since revoking the gold standard in 1971, governments have been maxing out their cards, then opening new ones to pay off the old ones.
And unlike Bowtied bum, they aren't getting any reward points for churning!
Yep!
Can comment on the UPS situation, it’s a vital aspect to my job for receiving product I sell. If the situation isn’t resolved by 11:59 pm 7/31 it’s going to get ugly.
Spoke to someone at UPS about it last week and they were optimistic for a solution to be reached this week.
UPS just reached a deal
Ecom sellers breathing easy for now lol
Is this just a USA only phenomenon, or would it be a global strike by UPS? Or even North America wide?
No idea on that front, was just commenting on what I know for US
I think the govt could balance the budget if they just got people healthy. Just imagine if they were to ban seed oils, HFCS, and processed carbs while at the same time promoting healthy food and exercise.
It would lower obesity and chronic disease thus reducing spending on Medicare. This would also improve GDP as healthier people are more productive. And would go a long way towards easing the social tensions and insanity in our society.
You really have to wonder why they don’t do this? Why do they want us all fat, sick and miserable? Who does it benefit in the long run?
--"As you can see in the prior chart, debt to GDP at the time was 0%." Think you're looking at the wrong scale. Debt to GDP averaged c.45% in the 1980s (right hand scale). Anyway, still much lower than now so the point is valid that higher rates were less of an issue
--"Having *small* inflation is generally healthy. At small amounts you encourage spending and economic growth/innovation since people won’t stuff money under a mattress knowing prices will be lower in 2-3 years." A top Keynesian talking point but how true is it? Quite a few goods fall in price every year (TVs, computers etc) but doesn't stop people buying a ton of them. If we ever move to a btc/similar reserve system deflation will have to be the norm over time due to fixed supply. Despite the huge boom in global trade and wealth in the 19th Century, there was 100 years of deflation up to 1914 (hint: gold standard / fixed supply)
--Re treasuries if we are looking at a future of low rates and higher inflation (which I agree with), then it probably makes sense to buy 10-30 yr now and sell as soon as rates fall meaningfully (and price rises). Even if rich, holding them long term for the "risk free yield" is unlikely to be a great strategy as the 5% yield will be crushed by the high inflation over time
Good catch should say 30% not 0% still the same thing. If you make $100K and lever up $30K the interest burden is easy
For fellow Amazon sellers, UPS is a shipping partner for both merchant fulfilled shipments and inbound shipments to FBA fulfillment centers. Amazon thus far hasn’t said a word with respect to contingency plans if the strike goes through. Perhaps a sign they don’t think it’s likely.
Either way, FBM sellers can simply shift to USPS or Fedex postage.
For FBA inbound shipments, this hurts sellers that ship small parcels in more than those that ship in freight (pallets/truckloads).
Small Parcel Delivery Shipments - UPS is the main shipping partner for small parcel delivery and provides steep discounts. Would advise those sellers to start providing their own shipping (buy through your FedEx/USPS accounts or use PirateShip). Will cost more inbound but lowers risk you have inventory stuck in transit when strike happens (unclear if they would finish our in transit shipments or not but why risk it?).
Freight shipments - just use any of other Amazon’s other freight suppliers and reject the shipping plan if they try to force you to use UPS. Or provide your own.
Someone in Maui’s discord said same thing as others above. Spoke to a UPS guy that said they doesn’t expect strike cause they got pretty much everything (comment as of July 22)
Something you always emphasize is testing demand before ordering inventory-
How much time should be committed to demand testing if you know the product sells very well for a similar but larger brand? In this case would working on funnel/marketing be more important?
I've switched over to the lifetime subscription but I do not see * “don’t renew” at the end * part. Do you mean we cancel subscription after we subscribe? Thanks for clarifying.
Correct cancel at the end we have your info saved
Stalking TLT for all the reasons laid out in this article. Don’t want to own it long term (like equities or BTC/ETH) otherwise would just buy the actual bond, but want to capture the up move in long duration when it happens at some point. SURPRISE spike in unemployment would probably be the catalyst. The chart has really obvious technicals too so R/R seems pretty amazing.
Also... discounted lifetime membership for clown mask holders?
Bull,
Please could you offer advice on the best way to move to the US from the UK.
With the state of the UK at the moment it seems like a terrible place to grow your wealth.
I’m currently a student of a Construction related degree about to go into final year or have an optional year of working in industry. I’m happy to switch sectors if it helps to gain a move to the states.
What kind of visas are available etc?
Appreciate any advice you may have.
No clue never lived out there, would need to reach out to the jungle
You’re lucky you haven’t had to!
I guess the Middle East is probably the next best option to build up my earnings.
Appreciate the response!
> If you can lock in enough to cover basic costs, go ahead and buy that 10-30 year.
Would you do that as a zero coupon ladder? Say 200k face value per year up to the 20 year point? Or am I overthinking it and just do like a T-bond with interest payments equaling 200k/y and principal back at the end. Obviously the former much less capital outlay than the latter. Just thinking through duration risk and opportunity costs.
You're over thinking it, staggering out 10bps not worth the time unless huge. Just look at tax free options like Munis on the front end and T-bills on the long-tail should net you a good tax set up
Obvious kink at the 20 year point. Priced to same as 3Yr point. Loaded up
Bank is already broken but for this I’ll gather soda cans Cheers
Seeing a lot of news about labour disruptions and strikes (not just in the USA) - would it be correct to assume this is the start (or already in) a wage-price spiral? Navarro thinks it may be so:
Real wages down -> wage increases sought by workers -> prices of goods and services go up -> inflation up -> Powell forced to hike rates or keep high
there's just one problem. who's going to pay the increased wages? businesses will be cutting jobs as growth slows. growth is slowing globally after the synchronisation that occurred during covid. producers and services are seeing less demand but they're hanging on to their employees while hoping for things to pick up. but we see y/y % change in demand going down in the data. this which leads to lower prices of goods and services, inflation down and rates down. not my opinion but jeff snyders. the data checks out though
Maybe we will see higher wages + job cuts? Definitely will be interesting to see what happens in Q4/Q1 I guess.
it will be an interesting Q3 and 2024 for sure
Missed the 25 guess I’ll have to buy
Ha we're sure the $10-20 will break the bank!
Signed up for the lifetime offer as soon as I saw it. No brainer! How do I know if I managed to be in the first 25? Really struggling with the wifi set up still and looking forward to the book!
You'll find out when he launches, we're just going to go through the first 25, did about 40 in total so high chance.
UPS guys I know don’t think a strike happens because they’ve already gotten pretty much everything they wanted. But who knows.
Do you know if this applies only to drivers or what if you are utilizing UPS stores for shipping / receiving?