Your friendly neighborhood bank regulator here: I asked the CEO of a $500 million bank last week if he had any plans to develop policies or product offerings for allowing customers to have the bank custody bitcoin (basically bitcoin 101 for a community bank). His response was angry tulip mumbling.
I had to stop myself from telling him that MSTR's unrealized gains alone are 4x his bank's total assets. We early, jungle.
Seems unlikely anyone starting in last couple years will catch up with 2012-2013 HODLers. If starting today seems like you could catch up with 2018-2019 bear market ppl pretty quickly. ASSUMES YOU'VE BUILT A DECENT STACK OF MAJOR PROTOCOLS + GOOD CASH FLOW.
So many opps for insane returns. Last summer was defi summer (100x) on top projects. This summer, jpeg summer - same thing.
DeFi fall should be decent. Arbitrum + derivatives. Won't 100X (I don't think?!?)
What comes after that? Idk - gaming, maybe?
Point is if you build a decent stack of major protocols and then willing to be a degen. Some will go to 0. Others will 30X in Y months.
What are you buying at moment? some peeps saying the alta shld begin popping after ogs sell some of their btc and eth. If gaming, what r thoughts on vra and ufo?
I sold a physical good for cash the other day. It felt weird to accept worthless paper in exchange, as if we were playing monopoly. Once you see the rug, you can't unsee it.
What's funny is that at $24tn, asuming 50% of it is BTC, its mkt cap is roughly the same as gold's which is not an irrational level.
I'd really recommend everyone reads The Sovereign Individual and The Bitcoin Standard (in addition to Ready Player One like BTB mentioned) if you want to understand where this is all going.
Also:
LMAO at "Maths".
I still can't get over the fact that you aren't American with your personality.
It's actually part of the joke for people who are on Wall Street. On Wall Street they cry and complain over stupid things like font size and color while constantly missing the big picture.
We include some troll typing style to emphasize that it just doesn't matter. What's the main point, go there and move on.
My primary source of income, and my secondary source of income are both Fiat now, and for the near future. I'm sure it's the same for most of us, including yourself. Thus the exchange of fiat to crypto will always be the point as we transition into digital sovereignty. Would you agree?
And for those who have limited fiat flows, it is a great value add to be able to maximize the total amount of crypto they can own by looking at market and price activity. It's one of the core purposes of this substack imo
Once you have your own conviction of crypto set just DCA monthly/weekly and ride the wave of price activity as it evens out. Will also keep your mind at ease as you aren't focussed on the bullseye of $100K. If you want to maximise just add a little more than usual on DCA if price in USTT fluctuates 8-12%.
Per usual we do not comment on predictions in comments as it is not fair to people who only have time to read posts. Equal Opportunity, Unequal Results.
It is more important to get off zero first is the message from us. We still own stocks as you know from our traditional portfolio in the monthly updates
I wondered why you used SP500 instead of SP500 total return index, so I checked the numbers. Still pathetic returns for the last 20 years. I’m glad to be corrected if I did it wrong, but I came up with 36% using the total return index. Woohoo for dividends. NGMI
Yeah we just ran it with S&P Returns since it is faster (this is free content), if you include dividends you can go ahead and change the numbers a bit. Either way... We're arguing over 6% decline and 10% increase over a *TWENTLY FULL YEARS*. Focus on the big picture. The point is that the majority of all the "gains" 90%+ are all just money printing
My friend is convinced that regulation is coming to crypto and in a way that benefits big banks (as they can get politicians do whatever they want). He is afraid it would drop tremendously in value when that happens. Is there any counter to this? Just that they are too inept to regulate it?
Yeah still don't really get it, you could do this with a phone wallet if the bouncer was somehow interesting in coins. At this point we're early so doubt the average bouncer "accepts coins"
Your friendly neighborhood bank regulator here: I asked the CEO of a $500 million bank last week if he had any plans to develop policies or product offerings for allowing customers to have the bank custody bitcoin (basically bitcoin 101 for a community bank). His response was angry tulip mumbling.
I had to stop myself from telling him that MSTR's unrealized gains alone are 4x his bank's total assets. We early, jungle.
Very early
Seems unlikely anyone starting in last couple years will catch up with 2012-2013 HODLers. If starting today seems like you could catch up with 2018-2019 bear market ppl pretty quickly. ASSUMES YOU'VE BUILT A DECENT STACK OF MAJOR PROTOCOLS + GOOD CASH FLOW.
So many opps for insane returns. Last summer was defi summer (100x) on top projects. This summer, jpeg summer - same thing.
DeFi fall should be decent. Arbitrum + derivatives. Won't 100X (I don't think?!?)
What comes after that? Idk - gaming, maybe?
Point is if you build a decent stack of major protocols and then willing to be a degen. Some will go to 0. Others will 30X in Y months.
Well said
What are you buying at moment? some peeps saying the alta shld begin popping after ogs sell some of their btc and eth. If gaming, what r thoughts on vra and ufo?
vra is a beast. Don't forget to stake it.
What is your target price forecast on it
I bought Saitama and Mononoke within the last month.. I'm like 7-9x depending on the daily swing.
Also threw a little bit at diginu... Follow @Yuriiboyka on stocktwits but beware it looks like he's used followers to pump OTC in the past
Any others u r eyeballing now that could present snother 7-9x oppt? Alsox what is your method for finding these degen gems?
I sold a physical good for cash the other day. It felt weird to accept worthless paper in exchange, as if we were playing monopoly. Once you see the rug, you can't unsee it.
What's funny is that at $24tn, asuming 50% of it is BTC, its mkt cap is roughly the same as gold's which is not an irrational level.
pets.com (2001) = dogecoin (202X) ? = simulation confirmed
The currency red pill only goes one way.
> It felt weird to accept worthless paper in exchange, as if we were playing monopoly
lol, it's a similar feeling when walking into a bank or even logging into my bank acc online, it feels completely outdated.
This is the best BTB content. Showing the maths on how to make it... or in the last 2 Monday. posts That WAGMI
I'd really recommend everyone reads The Sovereign Individual and The Bitcoin Standard (in addition to Ready Player One like BTB mentioned) if you want to understand where this is all going.
Also:
LMAO at "Maths".
I still can't get over the fact that you aren't American with your personality.
It's actually part of the joke for people who are on Wall Street. On Wall Street they cry and complain over stupid things like font size and color while constantly missing the big picture.
We include some troll typing style to emphasize that it just doesn't matter. What's the main point, go there and move on.
Current US National Debt ( $28.7 T) surpassing 2001 Global Money supply ~$27T. Clown 🤡 World 🌎
Calculating that SP is -6% in the past 20 years was purely genius nice
Lol at roasting hard Fidelity
Unofficially, when would you say BTC hits 100k if you had to bet?
It seems like you're missing the point. USTT isn't real money so it doesn't matter. 1 BTC = 1 BTC
My primary source of income, and my secondary source of income are both Fiat now, and for the near future. I'm sure it's the same for most of us, including yourself. Thus the exchange of fiat to crypto will always be the point as we transition into digital sovereignty. Would you agree?
Nope. I've been converting fiat into crypto every month regardless of price for a few years now. It's worked out well for me so far.
And for those who have limited fiat flows, it is a great value add to be able to maximize the total amount of crypto they can own by looking at market and price activity. It's one of the core purposes of this substack imo
Once you have your own conviction of crypto set just DCA monthly/weekly and ride the wave of price activity as it evens out. Will also keep your mind at ease as you aren't focussed on the bullseye of $100K. If you want to maximise just add a little more than usual on DCA if price in USTT fluctuates 8-12%.
Per usual we do not comment on predictions in comments as it is not fair to people who only have time to read posts. Equal Opportunity, Unequal Results.
I understand that the extra money supply destined for investments has to go someplace, but why wouldn't it be split between crypto and stocks?
It is more important to get off zero first is the message from us. We still own stocks as you know from our traditional portfolio in the monthly updates
It will be split. At some ratio in steady state.
Crypto currently a highly asymmetric bet. We are early
Call option on future economy... with *positive carry*
I wondered why you used SP500 instead of SP500 total return index, so I checked the numbers. Still pathetic returns for the last 20 years. I’m glad to be corrected if I did it wrong, but I came up with 36% using the total return index. Woohoo for dividends. NGMI
Yeah we just ran it with S&P Returns since it is faster (this is free content), if you include dividends you can go ahead and change the numbers a bit. Either way... We're arguing over 6% decline and 10% increase over a *TWENTLY FULL YEARS*. Focus on the big picture. The point is that the majority of all the "gains" 90%+ are all just money printing
It's funny that you didn't mention crypto in the investment strategy
I'm going to share this wide and far, really clear write-up!
Hopefully, I can take some people from NGMI territory into Might Make It
Great visualizations team. Thank you.
My friend is convinced that regulation is coming to crypto and in a way that benefits big banks (as they can get politicians do whatever they want). He is afraid it would drop tremendously in value when that happens. Is there any counter to this? Just that they are too inept to regulate it?
What regulations specifically?
How will they regulate decentralized protocols used by so many people around the world?
if you regulate something you are taking the risk of making it even more scarce and appealing to the masses. Will they take this risk?
Also, autists > regulators, they will be able to get around them.
No specifics, just an idea that banks are too powerful to lose.
Fintech is already making banks lose at the margins. By the time banks/regulators where the threat is or what to do, it will be too late.
Great Post Boys
Do you think we'll ever be passing bouncers crypto i.e. lowkey pass a bouncer a 100TT equivalent on the fly without anyone noticing
What?
Greasing palms
Yeah still don't really get it, you could do this with a phone wallet if the bouncer was somehow interesting in coins. At this point we're early so doubt the average bouncer "accepts coins"
When it goes that mainstream, no one would be willing to pass them the coins though so that's where the disconnect is.