Quick Tariff Notes, Clear Limbal Ring Info and Small RE Update
Level 1 - NGMI
Welcome Avatar! The post we did related to Luka generated some real interest in the “eye test”. If you want to see this in your personal life, just go through the people in your high school year book and compare 10 years out. You’ll see a sorcery level correlation with physical performance/health.
Before that though here is some fun info on the Tariff related noise.
Part 1: Tariffs
This is pretty much what you need to know on Tariffs. Trump went in ultra hard slapping 25% tariffs to set a “high anchor” on negotiations. Less than 24 hours later both Mexico and Canada are caving. Looking to put an end to potential disaster quickly
Quick Math:
Roughly speaking the USA relies on Canada for about 1.9% of GDP. Canada relies on the USA for 19% a 10x spread.
The ratio is worse for mexico with USA relying on about 1.7% GDP. Mexico on the other hand relies on the USA for closer to 30% closer to a 17x spread
Assume Some Sort of Tax: Despite the 24 hour resolution, it’s still smarter to assume that you’re going to get some sort of tax. Anyone in E-com that didn’t order at least a little in advance, should take this 1 month period to get that done. Even if nothing happens, there is zero value in taking that type of risk for a meaningless 6-12 months of inventory that you *need* anyway in 2025.
Doesn’t seem like we’ll get a 25% tax, just know that there is a high chance of some sort of tax in the range of 5-10%. Not worth the risk even if it doesn’t happen. This is similar to stocking up on goods, if they have a long shelf life and you need them, there is no real loss.
SE Asia Options: Based on what we’ve learned over the years, no one actually tries to escape W-2 shackles despite it being the only long-term option now (source $300K is the new $100K). Therefore for something small like this don’t mind explaining the clearest option: Vietnam
Assuming there is a big trade/tariff war, just keep a close eye on the list of the targeted country. Right now SE Asia is the next best option. Practically everyone in E-com is using China due to the costs and SE Asia is most likely the next best option.
Quick Math on Your Margins: We’d guess that the majority of you are at around 30% profit margin and around 60-70% gross margin. If you’re in something hyper competitive or brand new it could be as low as 10% and 55%.
Put a 25% increase into the COGs number and you’ll see that low margin business would be unprofitable and only the high margin items (30%+) would really survive and be pushed into the high-teens or so.
Start contacting alternative chains in South East Asia. Oddly enough, anyone already in the industry probably did this by now. But that’s how the cookie crumbles, the rich get richer since they deserve it for being ahead of the curve!
Summary
Trump basically put Mexico and Canada into the deep end, applying immense pressure. They immediately delayed this a month and will likely lead to a pretty quick resolution by end of quarter. Won’t be surprised to see more volatility but better safe than sorry! Order the inventory and look at SE Asia as a back up.
Part 2: Limbal Ring
We wrote about it related to the Luka trade and it looks like he has a normal (not bad not good limbal ring). We’re also noticing that people are completely ignoring the point. Asking things like “body type” or “hair loss”. None of those are related to limbal ring and never will be.
Jordan went bald, Lebron went bald early. It is useless.
The limbal ring is the king of age related genetics and we’re pretty sure no one will catch up to this for a long time. Especially not the Portland Trailblazers.
We’re going to show specific examples now and *NO* Lebron didn’t look old at all for his age. He was a freak with a dark thick limbal ring and yet was still already quite muscular. That meant his future as the greatest of all time was pre-ordained.
For fun we’re even going to use him as an example as well. The craziest we’ve ever seen is Stephen Curry who was nicknamed the “baby faced assassin” when he was in his mid 20s.
No interest in other topics like hair loss, skin color, eye color. Only metric you look at is: 1) thickness and darkness of limbal ring and 2) how fast lower eyelid hair appears and grows. If you want more proof of this just look up the guys who looked old for their age in high school. You will see them falter in college and never ignore it again!
Good vs. Bad Examples
Lebron as a Rookie, extremely dark and thick limbal ring. You can even see where it ends with this camera from 2003.
Minimal lower eyelid hair. Once again, we don’t care about his muscle. It’s all about the eyes and you can see it almost looks like a typical Asian dude in College with ultra thin hairs popping. Not normal at all (in a good way). He can’t even grow full facial hair unlike his son (more on that later)
Compare this to… Greg oden. The dude looks 40
You can see *fully* developed lower eyelid hair. The clearest example from this old image is his left eye (viewers right). The hair is practically 60-70% of the upper eyelid.
In addition to this you can already see how thin his limbal ring is if you zoom in.
Since these are all old photos we’ll now use some better photography to make it even more clear.
Newer Examples
Steph Curry at Age 25. Insanely good.
Not sure how to help anyone who can’t see this one. His limbal ring looks as thick as a sharpie marker. He barely has any lower eyelid hair. This was about 6-7 years into the league already!
Scoot Henderson - Insanely Bad
Scoot’s limbal ring is so thin you can actually see it fading if you zoom in on this photo. It looks like someone who should be around 27-28. Not 21-22. Our expectation is he is gone much like a Tyreke Evans in ~5 years.
This doesn’t mean he goes to zero tomorrow it just means his career is short and likely out of the league much quicker, maybe shelf life into late 20s. His Lower eyelid hair is already at a level similar to someone age 27-28 or so. “NBA ready physique” is 90% a bad sign unless you are some freak like Lebron.
Current Examples
Bronny James did not get Daddy’s ideal genetic mix.
His lower eyelid hair is nearly developed for a 25-27 year old. He’s only 20!
He’ll be a bust but don’t think that will surprise anyone reading here. He’s not really athletic enough to compete in the NBA. Also. Unlike his dad he has full facial hair development and a much much much thinner limbal ring.
Devin Booker - Look like 16 year old kid on draft night
Not a generational talent but he’ll be in the league for a long time excluding injuries and other such life events. On draft night he had no real visible lower eyelid hair and his limbal ring is pitch black and sharpie level thick.
Other Names
Alcaraz Near/at Peak
This is tougher to “prove” since tennis largely depends on who the competition is. That said he is not aging particularly well. Has thick lower eyelid hair and a thinning limbal ring (right eye in this photo viewer left is most visible).
Doubt that his career extends to the lengths of anyone in the Big 3. Only way it does is if Tennis goes through some lost decade. No one of talent for 5-10 years.
Victor Wembanyama Looks Neutral/good
His career probably tracks a standard athlete. While he has lower eyelid hair it is all thin and flimsy much like his facial hair. The good news? He has a thick limbal ring and hasn’t gotten injured (insane for his height!)
Tom Brady in 2014!
Quite literally insane, he has a standard limbal ring at age.. 37!
Here he is a couple years in the league
Notice that he has minimal lower eyelid hair, just frays like Wemby and this old photo you can see a think ring. If you scroll up and down just look at the outer ends and you’ll see the black thickness clearly.
Summary
This works with an extremely high hit-rate in basically every sport. You never bet on the guy who looks mature for his age (Tyreke Evans, Scoot Henderson, Greg Oden) all terrible ideas. You want to go for people who look like children playing amongst men, but are still at the top. That’s hitting the genetic lotto.
Since people like to see this happen over time, just watch Scoot Henderson, Alcaraz and Bronny James Junior. Unlikely relevant in 5 years (once again this isn’t going to drop over night like anything age related). If you want a positive look, track how long Booker is in the league and how fast Wemby scales to the top of the league (he will be a freak in 2028 at the latest - assuming no injury).
We’ll write that out again though. Nothing to do with hair loss or muscle. Focus on how young they look which is 90% in the eyes. Jordan went bald, Lebron went bald early, Agassi in tennis went bald. It isn’t relevant. Focus on the eyes/face and you’ll see the reality. If you think Lebron and his son looked the same age on draft night… maybe it’s best never to sell to women in the makeup industry!
Autist Note: Since this works for every single person, we’ve now handed you a way to determine how your peer group will age. We’re sure you can figure out why this is important in your personal life! (wink)
It is also no coincidence that a thick ring in trees signifies better conditions for growth. Same thing has been around for generations.
Part 3: Some Free RE Stuff
You’ve already seen our mention of propwire for basic *free* research. We’re doing more work on it to see if it’ll help find deals with the three Ds (Debt, Divorce, Death).
One thing we wanted to note is a change in habits of the “lower upper class”
Previously we mentioned that cash buyers and ultra high equity was a big sign of wealthy areas. We don’t like to use $ numbers since luxury in Alabama is not going to be the same as luxury in the Hamptons on a price per square foot metric.
The 50/50 Buyers: This is a new purchase pattern within the luxury/high-end market. They get money from their family and try to buy a house with a 50% downpayment.
If you scroll through propwire and only look for areas with 100% cash buyers or equity of 75%+ you’ll miss these important neighborhoods.
Find some recent transactions on Redfin, then go look them up on Propwire.
If you see a ton of transactions with 50% down payments, that’s a sign the area is still luxury.
While seeing places with pure cash purchases or Trust owned properties is best, the 50/50 transaction is becoming quite common. Figured it was worth mentioning since the upper management types (making $500-600K a year in major cities, $300-400K income in smaller markets) is on the rise.
Example in University Park
On that note we’ll leave comments open only on questions related to limbal ring or the real “eye test”.
Otherwise talk to you guys soon on Wednesday for the AI Agent launch post. (no we won’t be launching an agent it explains how to do it yourself and how it works)
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Algorithm to detect limbal ring prominence in athletes for degenerate gambling purposes. Who is working on this
so.
how you'd come to acquire this limbal ring alpha anyway?